Predictive election probabilities for the 2028 Democratic race: Who's currently in front?
The 2028 presidential race is already heating up, with betting markets already active. According to Polymarket, the current leading Republican candidate is Donald Trump, who has a significant 55% chance of being the Republican Party's nominee. However, no clear frontrunner has emerged among Democrats.
In the Democratic camp, California Gov. Gavin Newsom leads the pack with 21% of the wagers, followed closely by U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) with 16%. Former Vice President Kamala Harris and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear each have 3%, while former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro hold 12% and 6% respectively.
Interestingly, Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson and Kamala Harris are tied with 3%, and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore each received 5% of the bets. U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) clinched 4% of the bets.
The speculation surrounding a potential White House bid for California Gov. Gavin Newsom has been fueled by his podcast launch, frequent attacks on President Trump, and a recent trip to South Carolina.
In the Republican Party, Vice President JD Vance is attracting a significant 28% of the bettors, who believe he will be the winner of the 2028 general election.
It's important to note that these betting odds do not necessarily reflect the final outcome of the election, but they do provide an interesting snapshot of the current political landscape. As the 2028 presidential race approaches, it will be fascinating to see how these candidates fare in the polls and in the primaries.
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