🏀 WNBA Bets:
Predictions for WNBA Seasons and Bets on Victories: Aces, Sparks, Lynx, Liberty, Mercury, Storm, Mystics
The WNBA season is here, and I've already dropped some hot takes on the Indiana Fever and Dallas Wings last week. This time around, let's dive into the rest of the league's win total projections and slap on some more over/unders to our futures portfolio. Buckle up!
Let's go through the remaining regular season win total projections from the T Shoe Index for the 2025 WNBA season:
🎯 Las Vegas Aces: Win Total Over/Under 30.5
After snagging two WNBA titles under coach Becky Hammon, the Aces smacked us with some championship exhaustion last season, playing like a bunch of sluggards (and dealing with health issues) along the way. They missed out on the triple crown due to it all. How did Vegas react this offseason? With an epic trade sending star guard Kelsey Plum to the Los Angeles Sparks, in exchange for Jewell Lloyd from the Seattle Storm!
The T Shoe Index says they'll be contenders again, pegging them for 25.4 wins. But that's a good distance under the current win total Over/Under of 30.5. The question is, can quick Jewell Lloyd adapt fast to the system? If everything clicks early, the TSI might be low on the Aces, but if syncing the shots of Lloyd, A'ja Wilson, and the rest of the stars get messy, they could definitely go under this total.
Bet: Under 30.5
🌴 Los Angeles Sparks: Win Total Over/Under 20.5
Catch me talking about Kelsey Plum's new home—the LA Sparks. Plum will serve as the squad's face, along with rising star Cameron Brink, who's working toward recovering from an ACL tear and isn't expected back until closer to the WNBA All-Star Break. Let's not forget about FIBA 3×3 standout Dearica Hamby, who's a force to be reckoned with in the paint.
LA did lose some heat producers from last season, like Zia Cooke, Lexy Brown, and Kia Nurse. But you can bet your bottom dollar that Plum will fill that gap. If Brink had remained in peak form from the get-go, I might have backed this win total Over, but the T Shoe Index is only predicting 18.3 wins as of now, so another Under lean for me.
Lean: Under 20.5
🏆 Minnesota Lynx: Win Total Over/Under 30.5
Minnesota had a superb 2024 season, resurrecting their title legitimacy. The team is left wanting more and eager for redemption after falling short in last season's Finals against the Liberty. This squad was a top-dog for long stretches of last season and was especially suffocating on defense, led by Napheesa Collier. The Lynx also welcomed back all-star guard Kayla McBride for another run, so they reloaded the chamber and have their eyes on revenge.
The TSI has high hopes for another great season, with 27.7 wins projected, but that's below the market's assessment of them at 30.5.
Lean: Under 30.5
🗽 New York Liberty: Win Total Over/Under 32.5
The Liberty are fresh off a championship and have almost every player returning for this title defense, except for the departure of Courtney Vandersloot to Chicago. But fear not, Sabrina Ionescu and company will hold it down. They still bring back MVPs Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones to support Ionescu, so they're no doubt feeling good about their title rematch chances.
The TSI anticipates a performance of 29.5 wins for the Liberty. However, the market has been punishing these contenders with aggressive win total increases this season, and I think we'll see a more balanced league in 2025. Maybe give this one a pass for me.
Advice: Stay Away
🏆 Phoenix Mercury: Win Total Over/Under 24.5
You've all been waiting for it (besides the expansion Valkyries): the team with a substantial difference between the market and TSI win total projections. Cue the Phoenix Mercury! They said goodbye to Diana Taurasi, the retired GOAT, and Brittney Griner, who now rocks it with Atlanta, but they welcomed Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally to the fold, joining forces with Kahleah Copper.
The market seems sold on this trio as a contender this year, but the TSI isn't on board, projecting just 16.3 wins; far from the 24.5 the market sits at. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle, but the Victory Share numbers for these three don't seem to justify a significant upgrade for Phoenix, despite the offseason moves.
Bet: Under 24.5
🏀 Seattle Storm: Win Total Over/Under 25.5
The biggest headline in Seattle this offseason was the departure of superstar Jewell Lloyd via trade with both Las Vegas and Los Angeles, landing them Lexi Brown and Zia Cooke. They compensated by signing Nneka Ogwumike, Alysha Clark, Erica Wheeler, and Katie Lou Samuelson, while also drafting international dunking sensation Dominique Malonga.
The TSI has a projected win total of 23.2 for Seattle, while the market sits at 25.5. Too many moving pieces and a tight projection gap, so stay clear on this one for me.
Advice: Stay Away
🌪 Washington Mystics: Win Total Over/Under 14.5
The Mystics have officially started their rebuild, kicking off the exit of some veteran players. They dealt guard Ariel Atkins away for the #3 pick, waved goodbye to Shatori Walker-Kimbrough in free agency, and Elena Delle Donne decided to hang up her sneakers.
This season promises to be a tough one for Washington, but there's a glimmer of hope in the future. The TSI projects 15.5 wins, yet the market is starting to catch on and dropped their projected win total from 15.5 to 14.5. This rebuilding year might not be the best time to invest in the young Mystics.
Advice: Stay Away
Catch me on X, @TShoeIndex, for more WNBA betting insights.
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[1] WNBA.com: Napheesa Collier completes historic 1,000-point WNBA season for Minnesota Lynx
[2] Espn.com: 2024 WNBA playoffs: First-round reaction, notes from teams that advance
[3] Vegassportsconnection.com: Seattle Storm sign Nneka Ogwumike to multi-year offer sheet with medical exception, courtesy of WNBA CBA
[4] Espn.com: A'ja Wilson sets record, scores career-high 38 points in Las Vegas Aces' win over Indiana Fever; Dallas Wings shut out in loss to Seattle Storm
- The T Shoe Index anticipates the Seattle Storm to win 23.2 games in the 2025 WNBA season, but the market projects 25.5 victories, making it a tight Over/Under pick.
- As the rebuilding Washington Mystics start a new era, the T Shoe Index predicts 15.5 wins, but the market has lowered the projected win total to 14.5.
- The Minnesota Lynx are looking to avenge their 2024 WNBA Finals loss, with the T Shoe Index projecting 27.7 wins, but the market has set the Over/Under at 30.5.
- After an underwhelming 2024 season, the Vegas Aces seek to bounce back, with a win total Over/Under of 30.5. The T Shoe Index projects 25.4 wins, creating an opportunity for a potential Under bet.
- With Kelsey Plum leaving for the Los Angeles Sparks, the T Shoe Index predicts 18.3 wins for the Sparks, making an Under 20.5 bet a possibility.
- In the college football world, experts recommend taking the over in the 'over/under' prop bet on the total points scored in the Michigan-Ohio State game, where the 'over' is set at 64.5. On the defensive side, Georgia's Jalen Carter is earning expert praise on his ability to play defensively, making him a potential standout player to watch.
