Predictions for Top NBA Picks, Guided by Betting Odds, Efficiency Ratings, and Trends for May 2-3
Twitter Facebook Email## Today's NBA Betting Trends: Uncensored Edition
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytics, betting systems, and strength ratings featuring games on May 2 and May 3, 2025. This analysis mirrors the process that Steve Makinen and the VSiN Analytics team undergo when they handicap the daily NBA board.
AI's Take of the Day (Uncensored)
Following Bill Adee's lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I've decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI's record, starting January 30, is 87-72-3 (54.7%). Here's today's results, unsugarcoated:
- HOUSTON (+5.5 at GSW): A playoff Game Six system, three Makinen ratings projections, and recent head-to-head trends all favor HOU + multiple playoff trends/systems fade GSW.
AJ's Angles
These are the top betting trends and systems for today's games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
- Road teams in NBA first round Game Sixes are 28-17 SU and 32-13 ATS (71.1%) in the last 12 seasons. [System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+5.5 at GSW)]
- NBA teams, coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer, have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 183-155 SU and 187-141-10 ATS (57%) run. [System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-1.5 vs. LAC)]
- Much to my surprise, 11 of the last 16 (68.8%) first round Game Sevens have gone Over the total. [System Match (PLAY OVER): LAC-DEN (o/u at 205)]
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that is thought to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These pages are built using data that DraftKings graciously provides, detailing the breakdowns of money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for the games as of 12:30 p.m. ET on Friday, May 2. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up to tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, the majority of handle bettors were more successful than the majority of number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while the majority of bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:
- Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units, ROI: -1.2%
- Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units, ROI: -10%
- Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units, ROI: -16.3%
- Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units, ROI: -1.8%
- Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units, ROI: +1.2%
- Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units, ROI: -4.2%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this "super" majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is a profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it's a solid bet to follow it. [System Match (PLAY): DENVER]
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size. [System Matches (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE]
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning the number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets have been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this "super" majority group has gone just 70-104 ATS (40.2%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. [System Match (FADE): DENVER]
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures. [System Match (PLAY): DENVER]
DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last two playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 97-76 for -33.6 units and an ROI of -19.4%. Compare this to the usual ML return of -5.2% and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays. This system will be significant starting in April. [System Matches (FADE ALL): GOLDEN STATE ML, DENVER ML]
These last two systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023. [System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-DEN]
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don't get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023. [System Match (PLAY): OVER - LAC-DEN]
NBA Playoffs Trends/Systems
First Round Game Trends by Line/Total Range
- First round home favorites of 4 points or less have proven to be a bad investment lately, as since 2014, they are just 49-40 SU and 38-50-1 ATS (43.2%). [System Match (FADE): DENVER (-1.5 vs. LAC)]
- The last three NBA first round playoffs saw 70 Unders, 58 Overs, 1 Push (55%). This year, they are 20-19-1 to the Under (51.3%).
- In the lowest totaled first round playoff games over the last five postseasons, 218 or less, Under the total is 83-63-5 (56.8%). In all games with totals above 218, Over the total is 76-66-2 (53.5%). [System Matches: PLAY UNDER in BOTH GAMES]
Last Game Trends
- Blowout losses carry over - There is a bit of a misconception when it comes to teams "bouncing back" from rough first round losses. In fact, teams that lost their previous game by 12 points or more are just 68-126 SU and 81-111-2 ATS (42.2%) in the next contest since 2013. This year, they are 5-8 SU and 8-5 ATS. [System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-5.5 vs HOU)]
- Beware of teams that shoot the 3pt shot well in one game but still lose. Those that shot 40.0% or better on 3-point shots but still lost have gone just 21-37-1 ATS (36.2%) in the next contest since 2016 in the first round. [System Match (FADE): DENVER (-1.5 vs. LAC)]
First Round Trends by Game Number
- Outright winners have been incredibly proficient against the point spread in Game Sixes, going 31-3 ATS (91.1%) since 2015.
- Game Sixes are usually road domination - Road teams in NBA first round game 6's are 28-17 SU and 32-13 ATS (71.1%) in the last 12 seasons. Defense is usually the key, as Under the total in 26-19 (57.8%) in those contests. [System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+5.5 at GSW), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 208)]
- Game Sevens are usually competitive - Every fan loves a big Game Seven, and NBA fans should even more, as although the first-round Game Sevens have gone heavily to the favorites (14-4 SU), they are just 7-10-1 ATS (41.2%) in those 18 do-or-die contests.
- Much to my surprise, 11 of the L16 (68.8%) first round Game Sevens have gone Over the total. [System Match (PLAY OVER): LAC-DEN (o/u at 205)]
Trends by Seed Number
Trends by teams closing out series or facing elimination
- Teams getting a second (or third) closeout opportunity after losing the prior chance are 27-10 SU but 15-20-2 ATS (42.9%) in their last 37 tries. [System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): GOLDEN STATE (-5.5 vs HOU), DENVER (-1.5 vs. LAC)]
First Round Game Scoring Trends
- Success in first round games comes with topping the 117-point mark, as teams that have scored 118 points or more are on a 127-29 SU and 125-31 ATS (80.1%) run over the last six postseasons.
- In terms of points allowed, 99 points is the key benchmark. Teams that have allowed 98 points or fewer in the last six first round playoff seasons are 112-20 SU and 109-21-2 ATS (83.8%).
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year's VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they've gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
No Qualifying Scheduling Situations
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
Unusual shooting performance systemsNBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total in the next game, 312-267 (53.9%) since 2021. (OKC next) [System Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-GSW (o/u at 208)]
Teams not making many free throws bounce back wellNBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 183-155 SU and 187-141-10 ATS (57%) run. [System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-1.5 vs. LAC)]
- The article discusses NBA betting trends for games on May 2 and May 3, 2025, derived from analytical processes similar to those used by Steve Makinen and the VSiN Analytics team.
- An AI analysis predicts Houston to cover the point spread in their game against Golden State, citing various systems, expert picks, and head-to-head trends.
- AJ Makinen, another VSiN analyst, presents top betting trends and systems for the day, including a play for Houston to cover against Golden State in a Game Six system.
- The article presents strategies using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data, including a system that has been profitable when 63% or more of the handle backs a home team of 4 points or less.
- Another system suggests playing the under in LAC-DEN, as when a majority of handle bettors favored the under option, the results have been strong in the last 2+ seasons.
- The article also mentions trends for first round Game Sevens, where 11 of the last 16 have gone over the total, and Game Sixes, where road teams tend to perform well.
- The text concludes with a mention of the VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations crucial for NBA handicapping.
