Predictions for MLB Bets Today: Decisions Grounded in Betting Differences, Force Ratings, and Patterns on May 28th
!=== MLB Betting Trends for May 28 ====
A comprehensive collection of baseball betting trends and systems for May 28, 2025, has been assembled by VSiN analyst AJ Makinen and his team, with insights drawn from an array of analytical data, betting systems, and strength ratings.
=== Key Resources ===
Your sports betting experience can be enhanced with access to the following resources on VSiN:
- Today's baseball games
- Parlay Calculator
- Greg Peterson's MLB Daily Lines
- MLB Odds
- MLB Betting Splits
=== AJ's Angles ===
Selected top trends and systems for May 28, 2025:
- Pitcher Luis Severino has struggled as an underdog, going 11-27 (-13.89 units) over the past three seasons. Fade the ATHLETICS (+124 at HOU) on this trend.
- The total has been under in Rangers home games this season, with a record of 23-6 (+16.40 units). Bet UNDER in TOR-TEX (o/u at 8.5).
- Four-game losing streaks followed by moderate pitching performance have been a point of interest for AJ Makinen. Teams are 214-209 (+36.55 units, 8.6% ROI) when scoring 6.0 runs or fewer per game in the losing streak and ending the skid with a win. Consider backing BOSTON (+124 at MIL) and LA ANGELS (+130 vs. NYY) with this information in mind.
- Certain betting systems are particularly successful with road underdogs in final games of series, specifically when ending a road trip. 291-324 (12.6% ROI) over three seasons shows that road underdogs with odds between +101 and +187 have returned +77.69 units in these circumstances. Look for value in MIAMI (+140 at SD) and TORONTO (+114 at TEX).
=== MLB Bullpen Systems ===
Steve Makinen's bullpen strength ratings have shed light on some significant trends:
- Poorly-priced favorites with better bullpens, but a smaller winning percentage differential, have historically underperformed. They have a record of 307-182 (-118.22 units) and an ROI of -24.2%. These teams remain uncustomarily strong this year (46-15 for +12.58 units).
- Backing big favorites with better bullpen ratings and a significant winning percentage differential has proven to be a solid strategy. The last two regular seasons saw a record of 252-103 for +8.01 units. This year, these teams have been off to a very strong start, with a record of 66-20 and +13.96 units.
- Overpriced teams with better bullpens without a notable starting pitcher advantage have been a profitable system. However, this year's teams are unusually positive (50-16 for +12.77 units), yet still just a few games away from going negative.
- Teams with better bullpens have struggled to extend their winning streaks, with worse bullpen teams experiencing more success in that aspect. The so-called 'Makinen System' has shown a 428-485 (8.6% ROI) record for teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup, along with a 69-71 record (-0.32 units, -0.2% ROI) this season.
- Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks, which could be a valuable angle for bettors. Keep an eye out for teams like NY METS (-258 vs. CWS), HOUSTON (-155 vs. ATH), SD (-166 vs. MIA), NY YANKEES (-155 at LAA), and CHICAGO CUBS (-360 vs. COL).
=== Strategies Using DraftKings Betting Splits Data ===
VSiN's DraftKings Betting Splits data is a valuable resource for bettors. The following systematic strategies have been developed using this data:
- Bettors have seen more success with underdogs in matchups with 90% or more of the handle since the beginning of the '23 season. Teams in this situation have gone 200-83 (70.7%) for +35.78 units and an ROI of 12.6%.
- Home favorites over -250 have generated notable returns (194-62, 5.3% ROI). However, considering the high prices, results can turn quickly, so potential bettors should be cautious.
- Bettors struggle with interleague games, which have a record of 716-658 (52.1%) but -140.34 units since the start of 2023. It's recommended to fade teams in these matchups.
- Majority handle bettors have historically underperformed in games involving teams with fewer wins on the season. This situation has gone 226-228 (-105.41 units, -23.2%) since the beginning of 2023. It's worth considering fading teams that fit this profile.
=== MLB Series Systems ===
These systems are based on data from an article posted on April 3, 2025:
- Teams on a three-game losing streak looking to break the streak can be valuable, with a record of 334-341 (+50.15 units, 7.4% ROI) over the last three seasons. BOSTON (+124 at MIL), LA ANGELS (+130 vs. NYY), CLEVELAND (+124 vs. LAD), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+210 at NYM), COLORADO (+285 at CHC), and TORONTO (+114 at TEX) are among the teams fitting this mold for May 28.
- Road underdogs between +101 and +187 have performed well in final games of series (558-735, 2.1% ROI). Consider backing BOSTON (+124 at MIL), ATHLETICS (+124 at HOU), PITTSBURGH (+114 at AZ), MIAMI (+140 at SD), ST LOUIS (+102 at BAL), and TORONTO (+114 at TEX).
- Road underdogs between +101 and +187 on the final game of a series while ending a road trip have returned +77.69 units (12.6% ROI) over three seasons. Potential value can be found in MIAMI (+140 at SD) and TORONTO (+114 at TEX).
- Home teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they scored four or fewer runs have a bounce-back tendency, with a record of 526-446 (54.2%, +21.02 units, 2.2% ROI) when playing at home. Keep KANSAS CITY (-102 vs. CIN) and TEXAS (-135 vs. TOR) in your game considerations.
=== Extreme Stats Systems ===
These systems leverage noteworthy stats accumulated in the previous game:
- Be cautious with teams scoring nine runs or more, as they have underperformed with a 1775-1688 (51.3%) record since 2018.
- Road teams that didn't score well last game are better off avoided, with a record of 1745-2232 (43.9%) for -203.17 units and a 5.1% ROI since 2019.
- Teams playing at home that didn't record an extra-base hit are said to bounce back nicely, with a record of 528-446 (54.2%, +21.02 units, 2.2% ROI) when playing at home in the same time span.
=== Streak Systems ===
- Teams losing four games before coming off a 6.0 RPG or fewer game have demonstrated solid returns (214-209, +36.55 units, 8.6% ROI) in the fifth game of their skid. BOSTON (+124 at MIL) and LA ANGELS (+130 vs. NYY) fit this profile for May 28.
- Teams facing non-divisional league opponents while on a four-game winning streak perform well, with a record of 172-194 (+2.42 units, 0.7% ROI) in this situation since the beginning of the 2021 season.
- Teams that score the most runs per game are better off avoided when they are on a four-game winning streak. Teams scoring 5.0 runs or more during that streak are just 103-112 (-50.47 units) in the next contest since the beginning of the 2021 season.
=== Today's Strength Ratings ===
- The following underpriced underdogs (15 points or more) are worth considering for bettors, according to Steve Makinen's strength ratings: COLORADO (+295) and WASHINGTON (+180).
- The NY YANKEES (-155) could also be a valuable underpriced favorite based on Steve Makinen's strength ratings.
=== Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trends ===
- (903) MIAMI (21-32) has an over trend in games against LH starters, with a 10-2 record (+7.80 units) when facing them this season.
- (907) COLORADO (9-46) faces a favorable matchup as CHICAGO-NL (34-21) has a strong record as a ML favorite this season, with a 27-13 (+8.23 units) record in that situation.
- (909) MINNESOTA (30-24) has struggled against Pablo Lopez, going 2-5 (-3.30 units) vs Tampa Bay in the last six seasons.
- (911) ATHLETICS (23-32) face Luis Severino, who has struggled as an underdog in the last three seasons (11-27, -13.89 units). Fade ATHLETICS (+124 at HOU) on this trend.
- Under the total has been a profitable bet in (913) TORONTO (26-28) at (914) TEXAS (27-29), with a 23-6 (+16.40 units) record in Rangers home games this season.
- Over the total is a solid play in (915) NEW YORK-AL (34-20) at (916) LOS ANGELES-AL (25-29), with a 20-8-1 (+11.20 units) record in Yankees night games this season. NYY Clarke Schmidt has a strong record as a night large favorite (-155 or higher), with a 13-4 (+5.08 units) record in his career in this situation.
- (917) LOS ANGELES-NL (34-21) faces (918) CLEVELAND (29-25), who have struggled against LH starters this season (2-8, -5.83 units). Fade CLEVELAND (+124 vs. LAD) in this matchup.
- (921) BOSTON (27-30) has a strong record as a road underdog against NL with starter Brayan Bello in his career (6-3, +3.80 units).
- (923) ST LOUIS (31-24) faces (924) BALTIMORE (19-35), who have struggled as a ML favorite this season (12-22, -17.70 units). Fade BALTIMORE (-122 vs. STL).
- (925) CHICAGO-AL (17-38) has a trend of under in Mets day games this season (15-6-1, +8.40 units).
- (927) CINCINNATI (28-28) faces (928) KANSAS CITY (29-27), who have a strong trend of under in Royals night games this season (25-8, +16.20 units).
- (929) WASHINGTON (24-30) faces (930) SEATTLE (30-23), with a strong trend of over when SEA faces RH starters (23-13-1, +8.70 units).
=== Related Articles ===
- MLB Picks Today: Greg Peterson Best Bets for May 29
- MLB Futures Bets to Consider in 3 Intriguing Divisions
- Top Picks from the MLB Betting Splits for Wednesday May 28th
- The trend showing that the total has been under in Rangers home games this season can be applied to the TOR-TEX game, as the total is at 8.5.
- AJ Makinen's analysis highlights that four-game losing streaks followed by moderate pitching performance have been profitable, and bettors might consider backing BOSTON (+124 at MIL) and LA ANGELS (+130 vs. NYY) in light of this information.
- Road underdogs between +101 and +187 on the final game of a series while ending a road trip have returned +77.69 units (12.6% ROI) over three seasons. Value can be found in MIAMI (+140 at SD) and TORONTO (+114 at TEX).
- Certain betting systems are particularly successful with road underdogs in final games of series, specifically when ending a road trip. Bettors may want to look for value in these situations, such as in the MIAMI (+140 at SD) and TORONTO (+114 at TEX) games.
