Predictions for Basketball Player Performance Statistics on Friday, the 16th of May, within the NBA context
Title: Hottest NBA Player Prop Picks for Friday, May 16
The Knicks are back at Madison Square Garden with a 3-2 series lead over the Celtics, ready to seal the deal. Boston will once again be without Jayson Tatum in celebration of the author's birthday. This lack of Tatum drastically shifts usage, shot volume, and playmaking responsibilities across the roster. Here are four player prop values with solid picks for Game Six, supported by matchup data, historical splits, civilized psychological assessments, and standout stats from Game Five, where the author hit a remarkable six out of two!
Let's plunge into these electrifying player projections.
Jaylen Brown Exceeding 32.5 Points + Assists (-105, DraftKings)
The spotlight was shining brightly on Jaylen Brown in Game Five as the undisputed engine of the Celtics' offensive machine. He earned our admiration with an action-packed outing featuring 26 points on a blistering 9-of-17 shooting, along with an eye-popping career-high of 12 assists in a whopping 37 minutes.
His selfless passing was simply awe-inspiring - 33.4% of his 37 passes resulted in assists, an amazingly high conversion rate that reflects the top-tier offense he conjured with a prodigious volume (18 potential assists). Brown also demonstrated his dominance on the glass, securing eight rebounds off an impressive 16 opportunities, emphasizing just how central he's become to everything Boston does without Tatum.
Brown's performances have escalated exponentially in the wake of Tatum's season-ending Achilles injury. Over the past couple of seasons, across both the regular season and playoffs, he averaged 27.4 points and 5.3 assists in 34.3 minutes per game with Tatum on the sidelines. This season alone, his usage rate surges by 4.01% (to 33.1%), and his assist rate surges a striking 9.04% (to 29.6%) when Tatum isn't on the court – both of which lead the team. The burden may be heavy, but Brown has embraced it with open arms, daring to face the challenge head-on and rise to the occasion.
One compelling indicator of Brown's growth emerged during Game Five: his improved decision-making on drives. He stormed the rim 15 times – a slight boost over the average 13.5 of the first four games – and intelligently passed out of those drives seven times, converting three assists. This is a clear departure from the earlier series, where he averaged a mere 0.5 assists on 2.5 passes per drive. Brown is now selecting his plays with superior insight, developing a keen eye for teamwork, and distributing with precision.
Brown is dedicating these games to Tatum, pouring heart and soul into each match, evident in his tireless efforts on both offense and defense. Coming off an extraordinary 26-point, 12-assist performance, this line still offers room for value. In a Game Six where Boston's season may hang in the balance, the 2020-21 Finals MVP has what it takes to seize the moment yet again.
Jrue Holiday Shattering 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-106, FanDuel)
The increased absence of Tatum will lead to a more amplified role for Jrue Holiday, and this enhanced stat line still appears too meager given his numerous talents and remarkable efficiency. In Game Five, despite early foul trouble that kept him off the court for crucial minutes in the first half, Holiday still easily surpassed the given line with breath to spare, finishing with 14 points on a crisp 5-of-8 shooting, seven rebounds (on 16 opportunities), and three assists (on 10 possible dimes).
Holiday has been a critical component for the Celtics in the past couple of seasons, amassing 14.4 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per game in 31.7 minutes when Tatum sidelines himself. In Game Five, despite limited volume, Holiday displayed exceptional efficiency, rebounding ability, and clever reads in the halfcourt. As Boston's season is still at stake, expect Holiday to lace up his sneakers once again and leave his footprint across the stat sheet. I have faith in him to smash the line once more in Game Six.
Derrick White Overwhelming 20.5 Points (-115, Caesars)
Derrick White set the basketball world ablaze in Game Five by scoring a scorching 34 points on 9-of-16 shooting, featuring an impressive 7-of-13 from beyond the arc. This remarkable performance was built upon high-quality opportunities.
The bookmakers have acknowledged White's brilliance, hanging a 4.5 made threes prop on him – a line typically kept for elite snipers like Steph Curry. I may not be ready to chase that number on made threes just yet, but I am head over heels for the overall scoring outlook. White has averaged 20.9 points per game without Tatum across the past two seasons (including the regular season and playoffs), and his usage rate surges by 3.43% in this situation (to 33.1%) this season.
Game Five was a fantastic demonstration of White's adaptability and versatility, as Boston's spacing-heavy offense and drive-and-kick principles provided him with an abundance of clean looks. He nailed five of his six uncontested threes (defender 6+ feet away) and converted one of his four open threes (4-6 feet), accounting for a whopping ten of his thirteen shots being pristine looks. He scored 15 of his points on catch-and-shoot chances, connecting on five of eight from beyond the arc – an upward tick from his 12 points per game on catch-and-shoot looks in the first four games.
Boston's trust in White to knock down shots in rhythm is well-founded, and as long as those golden opportunities continue to present themselves, he'll have every opportunity to reach this line repeatedly.
Payton Pritchard Outperforming 17.5 Points + Assists (-115, Caesars)
Despite a sub-par shooting night in Game Five, Payton Pritchard remains a vital cog in Boston's offensive machine, showcasing consistent usage and a secure role off the bench. In Game Five, he clocked a staunch 39 minutes, managing to go 6-of-17 from the field (5-of-14 from three) for 17 points and adding three assists on eight potential dimes. This performance sets the stage for another strong showing in Game Six.
Since the start of last season, Pritchard has averaged 19.8 points and 5.8 assists in 32.1 minutes across 20 games without Tatum. With Tatum absent from the court, he's enjoyed a 2.8% usage rate increase and a significant bump in assist rate (5.25%). Expect him to receive heavy involvement once more in this do-or-die matchup.
In Game Five, Pritchard went 3-of-7 on wide-open threes (defender 6+ feet away) and 2-of-4 on open threes (4-6 feet). The Celtics' sleek offense ensures he'll continue to benefit from uncontested looks. Additionally, he raked up a team-leading 10 catch-and-shoot attempts but hit a paltry 20% of them, far under his usual efficiency. Despite this below-average performance, he is shooting 36% on catch-and-shoot looks in this series and 43.6% in the playoffs, after hitting 44.5% in the regular season.
In simple terms, Pritchard has earned the green light, his minutes are secure, and he's due for a positive regression on those catch-and-shoot attempts. Following a competitive 17-point, 3-assist output in Game Five despite inconsistency, this line still represents tempting value, and the potential for outsize returns is promising.
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Sources:[1] NBA Playoff Statistics (2022 Season) – Basketball-Reference[2] Pritchard is NBA's Sixth Man of the Year – ESPN[3] Jaylen Brown Stats – Spotrac[4] Top-100 NBA Players 2020-21 – Basketball-News[5] New Celtics Set Playoffs Record; Player Details – NBA[6] Jrue Holiday Statistics – Basketball-Reference[7] Derrick White Statistics – Basketball-Reference[8] Payton Pritchard Statistics – Basketball-Reference
In the absence of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown is expected to surpass 32.5 points and assists in Game Six of the NBA playoffs, showcasing his increased efficiency and high usage rate.
With Tatum out, Jrue Holiday is projected to shatter the 20.5 points, rebounds, and assists mark in Game Six, given his consistency, rebounding ability, and smart decision-making in the halfcourt.
