Predictions and Probabilities for UFC 319 on Saturday, August 16th

Predictions and Probabilities for UFC 319 on Saturday, August 16th

In the upcoming UFC event this weekend, the action heads to Chicago where a highly anticipated middleweight title fight between Khamzat Chimaev and Dricus Du Plessis will take centre stage.

Dricus Du Plessis, often considered an underdog due to his wild fighting style, will be making his third attempted title defense in the main event. The South African fighter has built a reputation for his aggressive approach, but has struggled in the latter stages of three-round fights in the past.

Chimaev, on the other hand, has been considered a future champion since finishing two fights in ten days at "Fight Island" during the pandemic. The Swede's first five-round fight will be against Du Plessis, and it promises to be an exciting clash of styles.

The event also marks the debut of Aaron Pico, who will face Lerone Murphy in a possible featherweight title eliminator. Pico, a former Olympic alternate and U17 world champion in freestyle wrestling, has fought exclusively for Bellator so far, running up a 13-4 pro record since debuting at age 20.

Murphy, who has eight straight wins since a split draw in his UFC debut, presents a formidable challenge for Pico. The British fighter has just 52% takedown defense, but has surrendered well under a minute of control time per takedown allowed. This sets up a classic striker vs. grappler matchup between Pico and Murphy.

From a moneyline perspective, Du Plessis is considered undervalued in the main event. This could be an opportunity for savvy bettors to capitalise on the inefficiency in MMA betting lines compared to major sports markets like the NFL or NBA.

The betting inefficiency in MMA is primarily influenced by several factors. These include data and analytical depth, market size and liquidity, scoring and outcome complexity, and line movement dynamics. MMA is a less predictable and more volatile sport with fewer statistical models and less comprehensive historical data available for bettors and oddsmakers.

The smaller, less liquid markets, greater unpredictability in fight outcomes, and a lack of robust predictive data models contrast with the NFL or NBA where established, high-volume markets with extensive data lead to more efficient odds and tighter spread-to-moneyline relationships.

In addition to the main event, the event features the rare UFC free agent signing still in the prime of his career - Pico. Alibi Idris, an undefeated Kazakh prospect with a 10-0 record, all under the "Naiza FC" banner in his native Kazakhstan, is another exciting prospect to watch out for.

The event starts at 6:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with the main card at 10:00 p.m. on ESPN+ PPV. Don't miss out on what promises to be an exciting night of MMA action.

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