Prediction: What extremes of heat can we expect in Germany during Summer?
Germany is gearing up for a summer of unprecedented weather conditions, according to meteorologists and climate researchers. The Weather Channel has suggested that the country could experience a heat dome event from July, while the German Weather Service (DWD) has upgraded the probability of a warmer summer from 81% to 93%.
A heat dome event is characterized by a high-pressure system trapping hot air over a specific region, often causing significantly higher temperatures and prolonged heatwaves. The forecast for the rest of the summer indicates continued hotter and drier conditions with the likelihood of extreme heatwaves and potential roller coaster weather.
Significant heatwaves are expected to bring intense heatwaves through early July 2025, with temperatures in central and parts of eastern Europe, including Germany, reaching 38 to 40 degrees Celsius, especially mid-week (Tuesday to Thursday). Northern and coastal areas will be somewhat cooler but still warm. The heatwave will push temperatures into the mid- to upper-30s Celsius across much of Germany, with some regions possibly touching the 40°C mark, which is rare for the country. This will be accompanied by drought conditions worsening and an increased wildfire threat.
However, there are also indications of some temperature contrasts and more variable weather. The intrusion of colder maritime air into parts of Western Europe can create conditions conducive to thunderstorms or "roller coaster" weather events with swings between hot and cooler weather. Thunderstorms are expected in parts of Germany during the heatwave period, which could provide brief relief but also add to weather variability.
Large parts of Germany are experiencing extreme drought, according to the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research. European land temperatures have increased almost 2°C above pre-industrial levels, according to the European Environment Agency. The DWD expects average temperatures across Germany to be higher each month this summer than the average temperatures seen in the same months from 1991 to 2020.
The Rhine Waterways and Shipping Administration has warned of the possibility of restrictions on shipping on the Rhine due to low water levels. Long-term weather forecasts have a degree of uncertainty due to the complexity of weather systems, which are affected by temperatures, air pressure, humidity, winds, and far-away influences like ocean surface temperatures. Seasonal climate forecasts can help meteorologists determine at least a rough trend for the coming weeks, months, and years.
Following two days of the highest temperatures recorded yet this year, meteorologists are predicting a period of lower temperatures accompanied by thunderstorms, heavy rain or hail, and strong winds in many parts of Germany. Regions in southern Germany could have a very mosquito-laden summer, according to NABU's Julia Heiermann.
Residents are advised to take precautions against the heat, including staying hydrated and cooling homes during the hottest times of day. With the potential for extreme weather events, it's crucial to stay informed and be prepared for any changes in the forecast.
Based on the forecast, Germany might experience a heat dome event from July, similar to a high-pressure system trapping hot air over the country, leading to significantly higher temperatures and prolonged heatwaves. However, there are also indications of some temperature contrasts and more variable weather, such as thunderstorms or "roller coaster" weather events, providing brief relief but also adding to weather variability.
