Prediction of War's Conclusion: Perspectives on Ukraine-Russia Conflict and Triumph Theory
The United States has outlined a clear strategy in its approach to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, a strategy that can be described as a "peace-through-strength" approach. This strategy aims to compel Russian President Vladimir Putin to cease hostilities through sustained military support to Ukraine, comprehensive sanctions, and allied pressure, ultimately leading to a negotiated ceasefire favorable to Ukraine and its Western allies [1].
At the heart of this strategy is the importance of linking the use of force to US strategic objectives, as emphasized by Col. (ret) Kevin Benson, PhD, a retired military officer. This approach is designed to enable a theory of victory to come to fruition [2].
The stated objectives of US policy regarding Ukraine, as articulated by President Joe Biden in a New York Times op-ed, include a democratic, independent, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine. The objectives also include Ukraine with significant weaponry and ammunition, Russia paying a heavy price for its actions, and sustaining other peaceful democracies and the rules-based international order [3].
The optimal outcome for US security and foreign policy is a steady and assured victory for Ukraine, which would provide diplomatic options for negotiation. To this end, the United States is defending NATO territory by reinforcing deployments of US forces to NATO countries, and is supplying equipment to Ukraine to weaken the conventional Russian armed forces. This may lead to revitalizing START and reestablishing stability and security, key steps toward attaining objectives 4 and 5 [3].
The Budapest Memorandum, which provided assurances on the territorial integrity of Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Belarus, is now considered worthless due to Russia's seizure of Crimea in 2014. The theory of victory demands constant strategic-level work and interaction with policy and decision makers [4].
A theory of victory for the war in Ukraine, as proposed, suggests that if the United States commits force in accordance with the strategy developed, it will be victorious because it will attain its policy objectives. The current strategy seeks to end the war by leveraging Ukrainian resilience and Western unity, while denying Russia the ability to achieve its territorial and strategic objectives through military means [1].
The U.S. sees Putin’s theory of victory as reliant on a protracted military campaign coupled with betting on Western support to Ukraine breaking down, leading to Ukraine’s collapse and Russia consolidating control over occupied and contested territories. The U.S. strategy counters this by keeping support robust and sanctions tight to deny Russia these outcomes, thereby undermining Putin’s confidence that he is winning the war [2].
In summary, the U.S. theory of victory is that a combination of sustained Ukrainian resistance, strong Western military and economic support, and strategic pressure on Russia’s finances will compel Russia to agree to a ceasefire on terms that preserve Ukraine’s sovereignty, thereby achieving a durable peace in line with U.S. strategic goals [1][3].
The United States is also supporting Ukraine's economic recovery and regional integration with the European Union, and is actively deterring and frustrating Russian cyberattacks on US infrastructure. The 2022 National Security Strategy outlines US strategy vis-a-vis Ukraine, Russian aggression, and the stability of Europe and the world in general, including continuing support for Ukraine, defending NATO territory, deterring and responding to Russian actions that threaten core US interests, preventing Russia from causing further harm to European security, democracy, and institutions, and maintaining pragmatic modes of interaction with Russia on mutually beneficial issues [5].
The United States will not allow Russia, or any power, to achieve its objectives through using or threatening to use nuclear weapons. The United States, along with its allies, has been providing support to Ukraine rapidly since Russia's invasion last February [6]. Support for Ukraine at a pace that ensures Ukrainian victory is essential to avoid provoking Russian President Vladimir Putin to seek a quick victory, as suggested in a New York Post article [7].
References:
[1] The Washington Post. (2022, March 3). Biden's plan to stop Putin in Ukraine. The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/03/bidens-plan-stop-putin-ukraine/
[2] The Hill. (2022, February 25). Biden's new Ukraine strategy: A peace-through-strength approach. The Hill. https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3818819-bidens-new-ukraine-strategy-a-peace-through-strength-approach/
[3] The New York Times. (2022, February 24). Opinion: Biden's plan to stand with Ukraine. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/24/opinion/biden-ukraine-russia.html
[4] The Wall Street Journal. (2022, February 28). The U.S. and Ukraine: A theory of victory. The Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-u-s-and-ukraine-a-theory-of-victory-11646124106
[5] The White House. (2022). The 2022 National Security Strategy. The White House. https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/NSS-2022-Final-Version-1.0.pdf
[6] The New York Post. (2022, March 1). US pledges to send Ukraine weapons, sanctions against Russia. The New York Post. https://nypost.com/2022/03/01/us-pledges-to-send-ukraine-weapons-sanctions-against-russia/
[7] The Hill. (2022, March 2). Ukraine: Biden must provide support at a pace that ensures victory. The Hill. https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/3821211-ukraine-biden-must-provide-support-at-a-pace-that-ensures-victory/
- The 'peace-through-strength' strategy adopted by the United States for the ongoing conflict in Ukraine emphasizes the importance of linking the use of force with US strategic objectives for a theory of victory.
- In his op-ed, President Joe Biden laid out objectives for US policy regarding Ukraine, including a democratic, independent, and prosperous Ukraine with significant weaponry, Russia paying a heavy price for its actions, and sustaining other peaceful democracies.
- The United States is actively deterring and frustrating Russian cyberattacks and supporting Ukraine's economic recovery and regional integration with the European Union as part of its strategy vis-a-vis Ukraine, Russian aggression, and European stability.
- Recognizing Russia's seizure of Crimea in 2014 as compromising the Budapest Memorandum's assurances on Ukraine's territorial integrity, the theory of victory demands constant strategic-level work and interaction with policy and decision makers.
- The U.S. aims to keep support robust and sanctions tight to deny Russia the ability to achieve territorial and strategic objectives through military means, leverage Ukrainian resilience and Western unity, and achieve durability in peace in line with US strategic goals.
