Prediction of political race for the 2028 Democratic presidency: Who currently holds the top spot?
As the 2028 presidential race approaches, gambling markets are offering insights into the potential frontrunners for both major parties.
Republicans: JD Vance Leads the Pack
In the Republican camp, Vice President JD Vance is the clear and overwhelming favorite to win the nomination and the presidency. With betting odds ranging from -125 to +250, this implies a roughly 25-55% chance depending on the bookmaker. Vance's strong position is attributed to his role as Vice President, his youth compared to other candidates, and his role as a torchbearer for the Trump political movement.
Other notable Republican contenders include Secretary of State Marco Rubio (+500 odds) as the second favorite and Ron DeSantis (+2000) further behind.
Democrats: A More Open Field
On the Democratic side, California Governor Gavin Newsom currently leads the odds with approximately a 20% chance in betting markets. This is followed by New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (around 16%) and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (about 12%). Former Vice President Kamala Harris has improved her odds to around 6%, reflecting some market support if she runs again. The Democratic field also includes celebrities like Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson and Mark Cuban at very low odds.
No clear frontrunner has emerged for the Democratic Party's nomination in 2028, according to Polymarket.
Key Betting Odds for Early 2028 Nomination Favorites
Here's a summary of key betting odds for early 2028 nomination favorites:
| Party | Candidate | Approximate Betting Odds | Implied Probability | |-------------|---------------------------|--------------------------|---------------------| | Republican | JD Vance | -125 to +250 | ~25-55% | | Republican | Marco Rubio | +500 | ~16-20% | | Republican | Ron DeSantis | +2000 | ~4-5% | | Democrat | Gavin Newsom | ~20% chance | 20% | | Democrat | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | ~16% chance | 16% | | Democrat | Pete Buttigieg | ~12% chance | 12% | | Democrat | Kamala Harris | ~6% chance | 6% |
Gavin Newsom's speculated White House bid is fueled by his podcast launch, frequent attacks on President Donald Trump, and a recent trip to South Carolina.
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is also a top contender, with 12% of bettors wagering on him. Former Vice President Kamala Harris received 3% of support among gamblers for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028. Another Polymarket question shows Vance with a 55% chance he will be the Republican Party's nominee in 2028.
As the 2028 presidential race heats up, these betting odds offer valuable insights into the potential frontrunners for both parties. However, it's important to remember that these odds are subject to change as more candidates enter the race and campaign developments unfold.
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