Prediction Market Observer in Sports Betting Sphere Notices Noteworthy Shifts in Odds for Tagle as Potential Pope Candidate
Published: May 7, 2025, 12:05h. Last updated: May 7, 2025, 02:02h.
Mark Keast | Canadian Gaming | iGaming | Las Vegas | Sports Betting | NFL | Boxing | UFC | Pope Election
Pietro Parolin keeps the lead in Sportsbook odds for the upcoming Pope Election
As the Catholic Church embarks on selecting its new leader, sportsbooks have Pietro Parolin as the front-runner (+225) at platforms like BetMGM, followed by Luis Antonio Tagle (+325) in the initial betting round. Meanwhile, BetVictor targets Canadian bettors with similar odds for Parolin (+225) and Tagle (+300), while Matteo Zuppi stands at +450.
The conclave, a secret and solemn gathering of 133 cardinals who debate and vote on their preferred candidate, is currently underway. The world watches closely as the Sistine Chapel chimney smoke turns black (indicating no candidate receiving the necessary two-thirds of votes) or white (indicating a new Pope selection).
Sports Betting's Bright Future
The escalating interest in the election of a new Pope is a testament to the expansion of prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. Philip Gray, a Canadian sportsbook trading analyst, and former head of trading operations for Sports Interaction, expects this growth to continue:
"Prediction markets now will generally have far more liquidity [stake] as there are far bigger 'bet sizes' and constant trading of shares as the event draws closer, especially with these nontraditional events."
Grand View Research Inc. recently released a report estimating the size of the global sports betting market to reach US$187.39 billion by 2030, attributing this growth to the "rising usage of AI and blockchain technologies to improve the prediction algorithms."
The Pope Race: A Showcase for AI Predictions
Gray views the race for the new Pope as a prime example of AI taking over the sports betting industry:
"...AI predictions are going to be and have already started to be integrated into sites as an engagement feature."
While Parolin is currently the betting favorite, there might be a change in later ballots due to his administrative background and past controversial involvement. AI models predict Tagle's charisma, friendly demeanor, geographical representation, and a commitment to preserving Pope Francis' progressive reforms may be asset in his favor for potential later ballots.
Tagle Gaining Currency
As the predicted outcome fluctuates, digital prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi report changing odds. At present, Parolin stands at a 31% chance to be named Pope ($1.46 million volume) while Tagle clocks in at 19% with a higher volume of $1.58 million.
Oddschecker, an online sports betting odds comparison platform, reveals the election of a new Pope among their most popular picks.
The rise of AI and blockchain technology in sports betting is undeniable, and the race for the new Pope illuminates the growth and potential of this technological integration.
- In the upcoming Pope Election, Pietro Parolin maintains the top position in the odds at sportsbooks like BetMGM (+225), with Luis Antonio Tagle following closely at +325.
- BetVictor caters to Canadian bettors by offering similar odds for Parolin (+225) and Tagle (+300), while Matteo Zuppi stands at +450.
- As the conclave unfolds, the world is closely watching the Sistine Chapel for smoke signals indicating no candidate receiving enough votes (black smoke) or a new Pope selection (white smoke).
- Philip Gray, a Canadian sportsbook trading analyst, extrapolates that the growth of prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi will continue, attributing this to the increased liquidity and usage of AI and blockchain technologies in these platforms.
- Gray believes that AI predictions will become more prevalent in sports betting, already being integrated into sites as an engagement feature.
- With Parolin currently leading the race as the betting favorite, the election of a new Pope has become a showcase for AI-driven predictions, as AI models predict that Tagle's charisma, friendly demeanor, geographical representation, and commitment to preserving Pope Francis' progressive reforms may give him an edge in later ballots.
