Predicting Timberwolves' Possible Qualification for 2025 Western Conference Finals Against Thunder: Game 2 Betting Tips, Stakes, and Possible Outcomes
The Oklahoma City Thunder overcame a sluggish start in the 2025 Western Conference Finals opener against the Minnesota Timberwolves, conceding a first-half advantage before openly triumphing with a score of 114-88 on Tuesday. The Thunder are currently favored at -7.5 for Game 2, with a total of approximately 217, while they closed as -7 favorites for Game 1 at a total of 219.5.
Game 1 saw Shai Gilgeous-Alexander set the pace with a game-high 31 points and secure the 2024-25 NBA MVP award on Wednesday. Gilgeous-Alexander outshone Anthony Edwards, who scored only 18 points on 38.5% shooting, and the Thunder won three out of the four "four factors": shooting percentage, turnover margin, and free-throw differential.
In this analytical piece, we look ahead to Timberwolves-Thunder Game 2 and offer a pick as well as a favorite player prop for Thursday.
Shooting variance is the primary angle for Timberwolves-Thunder Game 2. In Game 1, the Timberwolves shot 29.4% from three-point range (15-for-51), while the Thunder connected on 52.4% (11-for-21). T-Wolves stretch-four Naz Reid missed all seven of his three-point attempts, and starting guard Donte DiVincenzo was only 3-for-12.
Furthermore, Minnesota took 17 more wide-open three-point shots than Oklahoma City in Game 1 (30-13), with the term "wide-open" signifying that the three-point shooter is 6+ feet away from the nearest defender. In Game 1, the Thunder converted 76.9% of their wide-open threes and the Timberwolves made just 26.7%.
However, if the Timberwolves receive similarly ample opportunities in Game 2, they should cover the spread, given their regular-season rank as the fourth-highest in three-point shooting rate and sixth-best defense. Despite their 26-point defeat in the initial matchup, a significant reaction seems unwarranted in the context of long-term offensive strengths for the Timberwolves.
The Minnesota Timberwolves make their way to the Oklahoma City Thunder for Game 2 of the 2025 Western Conference Finals, scheduled for Thursday.
It is plausible that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander could encounter fewer foul calls on Thursday due to the perception of him as a "foul merchant." The officiating crew for Game 2 may choose to avoid mercy-blowing whistles, or the T-Wolves may implement defensive adjustments. Featured Timberwolves players including wing Jaden McDaniels, center Rudy Gobert, and guard Anthony Edwards are known to be formidable defenders.
In Game 1, Julius Randle's performance was an encouraging surprise, outscoring his teammates with 28 points on 13 attempts and making 5-of-6 from deep. Although he is a New York Knicks fan who previously admired Randle during his time in New York, the analyst expected Randle to struggle against Thunder bigs Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. However, it appears that Julius proved stronger than anticipated and may continue to pose a threat with his long-range shooting ability in Game 2.
As a result, the analyst is placing a bet on Julius Randle to make over 1.5 three-pointers in Game 2, given the increasing likelihood of receiving wide-open chances. Oklahoma City ranked 23rd in three-point attempts allowed per game during the regular season and Julius boasts a 39.3% shooting percentage from beyond the arc in the playoffs.
Timberwolves-Thunder Game 2 Betting Card:
- Timberwolves +7.5 (-112), currently available at -6 (risk: 1.12 units) via DraftKings
- Minnesota PF Julius Randle OVER 1.5 MADE 3-POINTERS (-110), presently up to -135 (risk: 0.55 units) via DraftKings
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- In light of the Timberwolves' long-range shooting strengths and the increased opportunities they are expected to receive in Game 2, betting on the Minnesota Timberwolves to cover the spread (+7.5) could be a viable option.
- Given the increased likelihood of receiving wide-open chances and Julius Randle's impressive performance in Game 1, which included making 5-of-6 from beyond the arc, placing a bet on Randle to make over 1.5 three-pointers in Game 2 seems promising.
- As the Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves prepare for Game 2, it's worth considering the role of shooting variance, particularly the Timberwolves' three-point shooting performance, as a critical factor in the outcome of the game.
