Predicting Possible Events for Palestinians in the Upcoming Year

Droppin' the Dime on the Palestinian Struggle in 2022:

The latest Palestinian Strategic Report by Al-Zaytouna Centre for Studies and Consultations isn't exactly painting a rosy picture for next year. Despite major strides made in the internal Palestinian situation over the past two years, there's been a major letdown. The hopes placed on reconciliation and sorting out the Palestinian mess in the summer of 2020 have gone up in smoke, leading to a significant loss of confidence and credibility among the Palestinian people for the Palestinian Authority and Palestine Liberation Organisation.

The report remains concerned about the continuation of the crisis with the Palestinian national project and the ongoing conflict between the main Palestinian forces over agreements and resistance. Institutions remain in heavy decline under the current leadership, making it highly unlikely that fair and transparent elections will be held anytime soon. This leadership will continue to manage the situation within a weak, tactical framework if guaranteed re-election and continued Fatah dominance in Palestinian political life.

The erosion of the PA and its shrinking support base may lead to increased security and political repression to ensure survival. This will likely result in more popular opposition. Some have called for an interim Palestinian leadership or a neutral party with a full mandate to rearrange Palestinian institutions. The formation of a Palestinian national front consisting mainly of Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) is a possibility, expanding to include other factions and individuals pushing in this direction.

In the coming period, there may be better opportunities for popular action and initiatives at home and abroad, potentially influencing the Palestinian arena if well managed. Pressure to suppress and marginalize resistance factions will undoubtedly be imposed, including the siege imposed on Gaza, the drying up of financial support, and the publication of misleading narratives in the media. Resistance groups can still weather this phase if they maintain cohesion, integrity, and manage their capabilities while gaining the support of more and more ordinary Palestinians.

Israeli politics has been shaky over the past couple of years, with four General Elections between 2019 and 2021 and instability affecting the government's ability to make decisions. Benjamin Netanyahu still faces corruption charges, but a new coalition government headed by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid has taken shape. Despite its diverse makeup and the possibility of falling apart at any moment, the coalition will likely remain in power as long as parties fear Netanyahu's return to frontline politics.

Despite its economic and technological advancements, Israel continues to face instability due to Palestinian resistance to military occupation, total rejection of the occupation state in the Arab and Muslim world, regional instability, and unwillingness among young Israelis to serve in the occupied territories.

The UAE and Bahrain signed normalization agreements with Israel in 2020 and 2021, with the UAE showing keen interest in establishing political, economic, and tourist links with Israel. Trade between the two now exceeds $1.136 billion, which is much larger than the value of trade between Israel and Egypt, despite decades of normalization. The normalization trend may see a decline due to multiple factors, such as the cost and burden being greater than expected benefits and domestic pressure to support Palestinians. Arab regimes will likely continue to support a path of peace agreements, but opposition to resistance and the Islamic trend is a significant obstacle to meaningful change in Palestinian affairs.

Meanwhile, a broad national coalition featuring resistance factions, youth movements, and civil society is being advocated for to revitalize Palestinian leadership. Without a credible political horizon for Palestinians, regional agreements risk being perceived as detached from conflict resolution efforts. Preventing further erosion of the peace process will require regional actors to balance normalization dividends with addressing root causes of Palestinian statelessness.

Amidst the pessimistic Palestinian Strategic Report for 2022 by Al-Zaytouna Centre, hopes placed on reconciliation have evaporated, causing palpable loss of confidence in the Palestinian Authority and PLO.
The report expresses deep concern about the ongoing crisis with the Palestinian national project and the rift between major forces over agreements and resistance.
Institutions are in heavy decline under current leadership, making fair and transparent elections unlikely in the near future.
The leadership's continued rule is expected to be within a weak, tactical framework, provided they secure re-election and maintain Fatah dominance.
The erosion of the PA and its dwindling support base may result in increased political repression to maintain stability.
This unrest could lead to more popular opposition and calls for an interim Palestinian leadership or a neutral party with full mandate to reorganize Palestinian institutions.
A Palestinian national front composed primarily of Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and PFLP could take shape, potentially expanding to accommodate other factions.
In the coming period, there may be potential for popular action and initiatives to impact the Palestinian arena, but suppression and marginalization of resistance factions are likely.
Despite political instability and four general elections since 2019, a coalition government headed by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid has been formed in Israel, though it faces potential collapse at any moment due to internal bickering.
Benjamin Netanyahu still grapples with corruption charges, but his return to frontline politics poses a significant threat to the coalition's survival.
Israeli politics are marked by Palestinian resistance, total rejection of the occupation state, regional instability, and declining support among young Israelis for military occupation.
Economic and technological advancements notwithstanding, Israel continues to deal with significant internal turmoil.
The UAE and Bahrain established diplomatic ties with Israel in 2020 and 2021, but the normalization trend faces obstacles such as high costs and domestic pressure to support Palestinians.
Arab regimes are expected to continue supporting peace agreements, but resistance to resistance and the Islamic trend remains a major hindrance to meaningful change in Palestinian affairs.
A broad national coalition encompassing resistance factions, youth movements, and civil society is being advocated to revitalize Palestinian leadership to bridge the gap between regional agreements and conflict resolution efforts.
Preventing further deterioration of the Middle East peace process necessitates regional actors to weigh the normalization dividends against addressing root causes of Palestinian statelessness, including migration and crimes in the context of war-and-conflicts, policy-and-legislation, politics, and general-news.