Predicted Shift in Prediction Markets Regarding Tagle as Potential Pope Contender in Sports Betting Circuit
May 7, 2025, 12:05h. (Last updated May 7, 2025, 02:02h.)
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Parolin Remains Betting Favourite for Pope Election* Historic interest spurs growth in prediction markets* Rising AI and blockchain adoption boosts sports betting systems
If you've been keeping an eye on the betting world, Pietro Parolin still leads as the front-runner for the positions of Pope (+225) as the Catholic Church enters the conclave, a secret, private gathering of 133 cardinals under 80 years old to elect their new leader.
BetVictor lists Parolin at +225, Tagle at +300, and Matteo Zuppi at +450. The conclave is underway, with the world watching the Sistine Chapel's chimney smoke, as black smoke suggests no candidate has reached the two-thirds vote threshold, while white smoke means a new Pope has been elected.
The betting market seems to be buzzing over the election of a new Pope, shining a brighter spotlight on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, as per Phillip Gray, a Canadian sportsbook trading analyst and the former head of trading operations for Sports Interaction:
Prediction Markets on the Rise
On May 7th, Grand View Research Inc. unveiled a study predicting the global sports betting market to reach a whopping $187.39 billion by 2030, partly fueled by the "rising usage of AI and blockchain technologies to enhance prediction algorithms in betting software," likely to drive market growth during the forecast period.
AI highlights that Parolin might initially secure votes (as a compromise between progressives and conservatives) but his Vatican political background and past controversies could limit his appeal in subsequent votes. Meanwhile, Tagle's warm personality, geographical representation, and likely commitment to Pope Francis' progressive reforms could earn him supporters in later ballots.
Sports Betting Market Surge
With 11% of the world's Catholic population residing in Asia, the popularity of this particular Pope prop has been growing since 1978, when the first UK betting odds on the conclave became available.
"We mostly rely on prediction markets instead of sportsbooks for true liquidity," says Gray. "Prediction markets typically have far more liquidity due to larger bet sizes and continuous trading of shares as events approach, especially for non-traditional events like the Pope election."
According to Gray, AI algorithms are already taking over the sports betting industry. If there were no prediction markets, the betting odds for Kamala Harris could have been significantly shorter because the action at sportsbooks was On her.
The rise of AI in the sports betting sector is major, with more personalization and automated betting strategies, as well as improved fraud detection. In fact, the Pope election race can be seen as a window into future AI predictions integrating into betting platforms.
As of this afternoon, Polymarket lists Parolin with a 31% chance to be named Pope ($1.46 million volume) and Tagle at 19% ($1.58 million volume). Meanwhile, Oddschecker ranks the Pope election as one of its most popular bets, with betting odds for the favorite Parolin ranging from +225 to +275. Tagle's odds range from +275 to +350.
- In the sports betting world, Philips Gray, a Canadian sportsbook trading analyst, prefers prediction markets over traditional sportsbooks for their higher liquidity, particularly for non-traditional events like the Pope election.
- Pietro Parolin, currently the betting favorite for the Pope position, might initially secure votes as a compromise between progressives and conservatives, but his Vatican political background and past controversies could limit his appeal in subsequent votes.
- Interest in prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi has grown due to the global sports betting market's projected expansion to $187.39 billion by 2030, partially attributed to the rising usage of AI and blockchain technologies in betting software.
