Predicted MLB Betting Choices for Monday, April 28th

Weekly MLB Betting Preview: A Look at Some High-Value Matchups

Hey there, sports fans! It's another exciting week in the MLB, and we've got our eyes on some interesting matchups to play smart and grab those wins. Let's dive right in and explore where the smart money is flowing, using our latest MLB Betting Splits, updated every 5 minutes and sourced directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

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4:05 p.m. ET: New York Mets (-170, 9.5) at Washington Nationals

This is the final game of a four-game series. As of yesterday, the Nationals (13-15) have taken two of the first three games, coming out on top 8-7 as +130 home dogs. In this afternoon's series finale, the Mets (19-9) hand the ball to righty Griffin Canning (3-1, 3.12 ERA), and the Nationals counter with Trevor Williams (1-2, 5.11 ERA).

The Mets have been a hot ticket as the line opened with New York listed as a -150 road favorite and Washington a +130 home dog. Sharps have been getting down hard on the Mets to earn a series split, causing the line to shift from -150 to -170. At DraftKings, the Mets are receiving 85% of moneyline bets and 92% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Mets are taking in 60% of moneyline bets and 88% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a strong "low bets, higher dollars" Pro and Joe bet discrepancy in favor of the road chalk.

Favorites off a loss, like the Mets here, have been cruising this season, logging a 64% win rate and an 8% ROI. Favorites with line movement in their direction, similar to this matchup, have seen a 64% win rate and a 6% ROI.

6:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians (-130, 8)

This is the kickoff to a four-game series. The Twins (12-16) just pulled off a sweep of the Angels, winning 5-0 yesterday as -180 home favorites. In contrast, the Guardians (15-12) dropped two of three against the Red Sox, falling 13-3 yesterday as +100 home dogs.

In tonight's series opener, the Twins send out righty Bailey Ober (2-1, 5.04 ERA), and the Guardians put forth Gavin Williams (2-1, 4.15 ERA).

The Guardians have been a popular pick, with sharps pouncing on Cleveland laying short chalk at home, pushing the line from -115 to -130. At DraftKings, the Guardians are snagging 75% of moneyline bets and 81% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Guardians are taking in 83% of moneyline bets and a whopping 97% of moneyline dollars. Both books are indicating significant "low bets, higher dollars" support in favor of home chalk Cleveland.

Home favorites off a loss, like the Guardians here, have excelled this season with a 69% win rate and a 15% ROI. Home favorites with a winning record, such as Cleveland, have contributed a 69% win rate and a 12% ROI. Favorites with line movement in their direction, which aligns with this contest, have secured a 64% win rate and a 6% ROI.

6:35 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (-130, 9) at Baltimore Orioles

This is the opening game of a three-game series. The Yankees (17-11) snagged two wins in their series against the Blue Jays, sweeping yesterday's doubleheader 11-2 as -205 home favorites and 5-1 as -165 home favorites. On the flip side, the Orioles (10-17) fell victim to the Tigers, losing 7-0 yesterday as +205 road dogs.

In tonight's series opener, the Yankees tap righty Will Warren (1-0, 4.79 ERA), and the Orioles respond with Tomoyuki Sugano (2-1, 3.54 ERA).

The Yankees have been attracting significant attention, with wiseguys seizing the opportunity at a reasonable chalk price, causing the line to move from -115 to -130. At Circa, the Yankees are receiving 72% of moneyline bets and a respectable 90% of moneyline dollars, suggesting a "low bets, higher dollars" split and pointing to the bigger, sharper wagers backing the Bronx Bombers.

Favorites with line movement in their direction, like the Yankees here, have delivered a 64% win rate and a 6% ROI this season. Teams who made the playoffs the year prior, as is the case for the Yankees, have posted a 63% win rate and a 3% ROI.

To Wrap It Up

Stay tuned for more MLB betting insights, as we continue to monitor sharp betting trends, line movements, and betting splits data. Keep your eyes on key trends, player performance, and strategic betting on underdogs to identify profitable betting opportunities. Good luck this week, and remember, always gamble responsibly!

Enrichment Data:

Examining sharp betting trends in MLB games requires a keen awareness of line movements, betting splits, and key performance indicators. Here's an overview of the factors to consider:

Key MLB Trends

Home Field Advantage: Historically, home teams have thrived. For example, the Dodgers hold a remarkable 87.5% home win rate in the 2025 season[5].
Betting on Underdogs: Backing home underdogs can offer appealing value. In the 2025 MLB season, home underdogs have returned a profit of $333.12 when betting $100 per game[1].
Player Performance and Matchups: Focusing on player performance, particularly pitchers, is crucial. For instance, Logan Allen has demonstrated strong results in specific line ranges[4].

Line Movement and Betting Splits

Significant Line Movement: Heightened line movement often signifies sharp betting activity. Monitor how lines shift in response to public and sharp money.
Betting Splits: Investigating betting splits helps identify where sharp and public money are concentrated, providing insights into trends and preferred teams.

Team-Specific Analysis

Team Performance: Assess the performance of teams, such as the Mets, Guardians, and Yankees, in recent games and against key opponents.
Line Movement: Keep an eye on games where lines move in the favored teams' direction, which could indicate sharp money supporting them.

Conclusion

Analyzing sharp betting trends involves examining line movements, betting splits, and team-specific factors. Paying close attention to player performance, home field advantage, and strategic betting on underdogs can provide insights into profitable trends. As always, consider recent and historical data to sharpen your betting strategies.

Given the current betting trends, the Mets are earning strong backing, with 85% of moneyline bets and 92% of moneyline dollars at DraftKings, and 60% of moneyline bets and 88% of moneyline dollars at Circa Sports. This shift in the line from -150 to -170 suggests a popular choice among sharps.
The Guardians, on the other hand, have garnered 75% of moneyline bets and 81% of moneyline dollars at DraftKings, and 83% of moneyline bets and an impressive 97% of moneyline dollars at Circa Sports. With line movement pushing the line from -115 to -130, the Guardians are a popular choice among both small and large bettor demographics.
In the Yankees-Orioles series, the Yankees are receiving 72% of moneyline bets and 90% of moneyline dollars at Circa Sports, indicative of larger, sharper wagers. With the line moving from -115 to -130, the Yankees represent a favored choice among savvy bettors.
Home favorites, which include the Guardians and Yankees in upcoming matchups, have generally excelled this season, contributing a 69% win rate and 15% ROI (Guardians) and a 63% win rate and 3% ROI (Yankees).
Favorites with line movement and a winning record, like the Guardians and Yankees, have seen a 64% win rate and a 6% ROI. This trend further strengthens the case for these popular choices.
To identify profitable betting opportunities, keen observers should focus on sharp betting trends, line movements, betting splits, key trends, player performance, and strategic betting on underdogs while always gambling responsibly.