Potential US-Iran Nuclear Agreement Remains on the Table

Tome Time: Iran's Desperate Dance with Trump, a Risky Diplomatic Waltz

Potential US-Iran Nuclear Agreement Remains on the Table

By positively pessimistic, ex-diplomat bruiser

Let's face it - the world's diplomacy scene ain't exactly poppin'. Russia and Ukraine can't seem to settle their beef, Israel's got its hands full with Gaza, and the thought of a lasting peace? Well, that's just a far-off pipedream. But there's one shining beacon of hope on this gloomy stage: the US-Iran relationship. Now, I know what you're thinking, "The same US Iran's ruling clerics have called 'the Great Satan' since the Islamic Revolution half a century ago?" Yup, you got that right.

Iran, on the other hand, has been a thorn in the side of America since '79, when it held 52 Americans captive for 444 days. They're the same Iran that backs groups like Hamas and the Yemeni Houthis, responsible for the Oct. 7, 2023 terrorist attacks against Israel. Oh, and let's not forget the Iranian attempts to off President Trump and his crew during his first administration. So, why in the world would Iran want to stick its neck out and sign a new pact with the very same man who torched the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with a flick of his wrist?

IRAN'S MOTIVES

It all comes down to two things. First off, an agreement with Trump could help Iran steer clear of a direct military attack by Israel and the US - a prospect they're painfully aware they can't handle. With their economy in shambles, a new deal could bring some much-needed sanctions relief and, in turn, lessen the weight on the regime's shoulders.

But what does Trump stand to gain? He's made it clear he's hungry for a dramatic diplomatic victory. He tried and failed with North Korea and, so far, has come up empty-handed in his attempts to put an end to the mess in Ukraine and Gaza. A nuclear accord with Iran might be the ace up his sleeve.

Moreover, Trump has sworn on a stack of Bibles that Iran would never, under his watch, develop or acquire nuclear weapons. Given that Iran has been getting closer and closer to assembling the ingredients needed to build their own nuclear bombs, the urgency is real.

Now, there are some solid strategic reasons for Trump to pursue a deal with Iran. If diplomacy and military force fail, and Iran manages to build a nuclear bomb, the cascade of consequences could be dire. The result might be a nuclear arms race across the Middle East, with a nuclear-armed Iran giving its multiple proxies even more leeway to wreak havoc.

But, let's clear up a few questions that need answering before any deal can be penned:

What nuclear materials will Iran be allowed to retain or produce?
How will the US ensure that Iran follows through on its commitments?
What will the scope of the agreement cover - will it go beyond nuclear materials?
What will be the duration of the deal, and in what form will it be presented?

Iran could be seeking assurances that Trump and his successors in Congress will stand by the accord, such as obtaining Congressional approval for the deal.

A potential compromise could see Iran granted a small amount of low-enriched nuclear fuel suitable only for civilian uses. In exchange, Iran would receive some relief from sanctions, with the potential for additional relief should the agreement encompass additional topics. The deal could run indefinitely or have an expiration date further in the future - say, 2050 or even 2075. The U.S. Congress, as well as its Iranian counterpart, would be required to sign off on the agreement.

Such a deal would set Iran's nuclear ambitions back, but not stop them entirely. In fact, it might give Iran the chance to claim they have preserved a nuclear option while enjoying economic benefits. It's likely to be a hit with large swaths of the Iranian population who crave better living conditions and less international isolation.

In the end, Iran's leadership wants to safeguard the worn system born of the 1979 revolution. This goal has prompted major policy shifts in the past, such as Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini agreeing to call an end to the war with Iraq in '88 - a decision he likened to swallowing poison - to protect the Islamic Republic. The same reasoning could apply today.

Trump, on the other hand, would have the chance to proclaim that he signed a more comprehensive pact than the one he abandoned and one that's substantially longer-lasting. Sure, some folks in Israel and America might grumble that he gave too much away, but Trump's political flanks are beefy enough for the job. This deal would give Trump a way to avoid getting mixed up in new military battles.

The US-Iran relationship stands at a critical juncture. Back in the '90s, the US had a chance to attack North Korea's nuclear facilities, but ultimately hesitated, fearing that North Korea would retaliate by invading South Korea, where US troops were stationed.

The aftermath of the Oct. 7, 2023 attacks has made one fact clear: today's Iran doesn't pose the same threat that North Korea did back then. Still, Trump might be hesitant to test this premise considering that Iran could hurt its neighbors and jack up oil prices, causing inflation and a slowdown in economic growth. The convergence of risks and interests makes this situation surprisingly ripe for a diplomatic breakthrough.

positively pessimistic, ex-diplomat bruiser, bad-news bear of closed-door negotiations, veteran of unpopular wars, former enemy of the people, holder of top-secret security clearance

The US-Iran relationship, often fraught with hardship and entanglements in war-and-conflicts, presents a rare opportunity for a ceasefire, given Iran's desperate dance with Trump to avoid a direct military attack.
Iran's motivations for a potential ceasefire include the need for sanctions relief to alleviate their struggling economy, the desire to avoid nuclear arms race policy-and-legislation in the Middle East, and the wish to safeguard the system born of the 1979 revolution.
Trump, in his pursuit of dramatic diplomatic victories to distract from other war-and-conflicts like Ukraine and Gaza, stands to gain a substantial nuclear accord, especially considering the general-news urgency of preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
The duration of any potential ceasefire agreement between Iran and the US is uncertain, with possibilities ranging from an indefinite arrangement to a lengthy one extending into the future, such as 2050 or even 2075, subject to Congress's approval.