Potential Unrest Stoked by Underrepresented Political Factions May Threaten Stability in Georgia
In the heart of the Caucasus, Georgia's political arena has been a subject of intense interest. The ruling Georgian Dream party, established in 2012, has been a dominant force in the country's politics, while the opposition, led by the United National Movement (UNM), has been grappling with challenges.
The UNM, Georgia's biggest opposition group, is a coalition that includes Strategy Aghmashenebeli and European Georgia. The opposition maintains that the Georgian Dream party's legitimacy is questionable due to alleged voter fraud during the 2024 parliamentary elections. However, their influence is primarily confined to major urban centres, leaving them with limited support elsewhere.
The opposition's claims of illegitimacy have not gone unnoticed. The European Parliament did not recognise the results of the elections, expressing concern about the situation in Georgia following the vote. The European Union and the United States also condemned police violence and sanctioned some officials, but their impact on Georgian Dream's position has been minimal.
The Georgian Dream party has passed a number of repressive laws, including the 'law on foreign influence' that requires organisations receiving more than 20 percent of their funding from abroad to be listed on a special register. This law has been used against protesters as well as journalists covering opposition rallies, increasing the punishment for administrative violations.
The opposition's electoral boycott in the local elections in October 2021 might not have posed a significant problem for the authorities, potentially exacerbating the opposition's marginalization. In the 2024 parliamentary elections, Georgian Dream officially won more than 53 percent of the vote, while the Coalition for Change, which includes the Ahali and Droa parties, the libertarian Girchi-More Freedom party, and ex-UNM figures, got just 11 percent, and other opposition groups even less.
The Coalition for Change is not the only opposition alliance in Georgia. Strong Georgia, known for its focus on social issues, is another opposition coalition. A new entrant in the political landscape is the party led by former Georgian Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia, named 'For Georgia.' Positioning itself as a moderate opposition face, For Georgia has been gaining traction, but the rolling street protests that began after the elections have been dwindling.
The opposition's agenda of integration with Europe, promotion of democratic norms, and no rapprochement with Moscow loses out to day-to-day concerns, deeply ingrained paternalism, and conservatism in many areas. This, coupled with the Georgian Dream's aggressive tactics, has led to a situation where the opposition finds itself increasingly politically irrelevant.
In the long term, a weak opposition in Georgia increases the chances of political instability. The opposition's inability to forgive UNM's refusal to acknowledge abuses of power under Saakashvili, the former Prime Minister, further complicates the situation. The Georgian Dream has stepped up pressure on opposition political parties by assembling a parliamentary commission to look into the alleged abuses of the 'Saakashvili regime.'
As Georgia navigates its political journey, the opposition's role and relevance continue to be a topic of debate and concern. The future of Georgia's political landscape remains uncertain, with the opposition grappling to regain its footing and the Georgian Dream maintaining its grip on power.
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