Potential U.S. military action against Iran could lead China to reevaluate an attack on Taiwan.
A new perspective on Beijing's outlook
Donald Trump has often been perceived as a man who plans to keep the U.S. out of foreign conflicts. This stance was acceptable to China's leaders, expecting a restrained response from Trump to their aggressive policies towards Taiwan. However, the bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities could change that view.
The American attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities might force advisors to Chinese President Xi Jinping to re-evaluate their expectations of Trump's actions concerning vital interests of China. According to experts and officials, Trump has shown a different side from what China initially anticipated—one that is not as open to deals, nor as stable as believed.
The administration of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen is seriously considering the strategic implications of the U.S.'s actions against Iran. Initially, they saw Trump's isolationist approach as an advantage in deterring China, but now they're watching closely how Beijing will respond.
Trump has repeatedly declared he would avoid new wars. The 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran, culminating in missile and bomb strikes on both sides, forced his hand to take a side in the ongoing battle. For the first time, bunker-buster bombs were used to destroy underground facilities associated with Iran's nuclear program, which it claims is peaceful, although Israel sees it as a threat to its existence.
While some Trump supporters and MAGA movement isolationists have denounced the U.S.'s involvement in this conflict, congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene and Fox News host Tucker Carlson have openly criticized this move. The situation between Iran and Israel has raised concerns among critics about the potential for escalation in the Middle East and its consequences on Trump's presidency.
Now, Beijing must reconsider the likelihood of Trump adopting a more peaceful approach or reacting militarily if China resorts to forceful action to control Taiwan. According to an American official, Trump's orders for airstrikes on Iran contradict China's assumption that his threats can be dismissed, undermining the belief that he'll back down in a crisis.
In the Taiwan Strait, the Chinese will have a more realistic assessment of the situation. As confirmed by Yun Sun, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Stimson Center, China will need to rethink its provocative actions near Taiwan's borders and their potential consequences, as the war in Iran has demonstrated Trump's resolve to respond to any threats.
- With Trump's airstrikes on Iran, China may revise its anticipation of his foreign policy actions, particularly concerning war-and-conflicts and Taiwan's interests.
- The ongoing war-and-conflicts between Iran and Israel have given Beijing a new insight into Trump's politics and general-news stance, potentially affecting how China perceives his response to provocation in Taiwan.
