Potential Three-Way Summit between Trump, Xi, and Kim may take place in Beijing, according to American Analyst
The upcoming Gaearnia raid, which saw more than 300 South Koreans arrested, has cast a shadow over President Trump's foreign policy agenda, particularly his negotiations with Korea. The incident, deemed as "very ill-timed and embarrassing" for Trump, could potentially benefit Korea in the ongoing negotiations, providing Seoul with leverage.
In a recent statement, Victor Cha, Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, warned of a shifting power paradigm on the Korean Peninsula due to the deepening Russia-North Korea partnership. Cha pointed out that China has largely lost its ability to restrain Pyongyang, making the situation on the peninsula more complex and dangerous.
Trump's schedule for the coming months includes the October APEC summit in Gyeongju, where he is confirmed to attend. There are speculations that a meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping, the Chinese President, may take place in Beijing during this summit. The potential meeting is expected to focus on economic issues, particularly trade and tariffs.
Trump's desire to meet Kim Jong-un before the end of the year is well-known, and a second meeting between Trump and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung is "almost certain". This meeting will focus on trade talks, including discussions on a new business visa and investment framework for Korea.
The negotiations on this new visa agreement, led by Christopher Landow, the American Deputy Secretary, involved representatives from both the United States and South Korea, including diplomatic and immigration officials from both countries. The rapid response from Landow and the moves to negotiate a new business visa for Korea indicate Trump's direct involvement in the matter.
Victor Cha also suggested a trilateral meeting between Trump, Xi Jinping, and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un might occur. However, he cautioned that Trump must not rush into a peace agreement at the risk of undermining the core goal of denuclearization. Cha noted that there are no policy tools available to the US, China, Japan, or South Korea to divide Russia and North Korea, making the partnership the most pressing security threat in the region.
If Iran were to seek help from North Korea in rebuilding its nuclear program after being bombed by the US, China would discourage it, but currently has no influence, and Russia does not care. Xi Jinping's visit to South Korea, his first in 11 years, is increasingly likely.
Agreeing to a peace deal that merely freezes nuclear and missile tests could "de facto" accept North Korea as a nuclear weapons state, according to Cha. He suggested that Trump's eagerness to add Korea to his list of foreign policy wins could drive him toward a peace declaration, but such a move could undermine the denuclearization efforts.
Meanwhile, sanctions on North Korea are expected to push it closer to Russia, while incentives may be accepted without reducing ties. The relationship between Russia and North Korea is described as "deeper and more dangerous than during the Cold War". This shifting power paradigm on the Korean Peninsula is a concern for many, and the coming months will be critical in shaping the future of the region.
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