Potential Third Term for President Donald Trump: Chances Suggest a Reasonable Probability
In the United States, the Twenty-second Amendment to the Constitution, ratified in 1947, bars any individual from being elected president more than twice. This amendment effectively limits presidents to two terms in office[1][4].
The question of whether a two-term president could technically serve a third term through means such as ascending from the vice presidency has been debated by legal scholars. However, the possibility remains practically improbable without a constitutional amendment[2].
Former President Donald Trump, who was elected president twice (2016 and 2024, non-consecutively), is generally understood to be constitutionally barred from seeking a third elected term under the Twenty-second Amendment[1][4]. To date, no legal pathway exists for a third elected term without violating the Constitution.
As for the current odds or likelihood of Trump serving a third term, none of the recent sources provide any evidence or credible scenario where this would happen constitutionally. The courts have not supported the idea of ignoring the two-term limit[4].
In the betting world, bookmakers such as Kalshi and William Hill are taking wagers on whether Trump will secure a third administration. As of April 1, 2025, British bookmaker William Hill has Trump's odds for a third term at 4/1, implying a 20% likelihood[3]. However, the method by which Trump might achieve a third term (constitutional amendment, handing over the reins to a family member, etc.) remains unknown.
It is important to note that Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tennessee) has introduced a House Joint Resolution seeking to allow a president to be elected for up to three terms. As of April 1, 2025, the resolution remains with the House Judiciary Committee.
Trump's second term is set to expire in January 2029. Despite the ongoing discussions and bets, the public and judicial consensus so far supports enforcing the two-term limit[1][2][4].
This article was last updated on April 1, 2025, at 03:41h.
[1] The Twenty-second Amendment to the United States Constitution, United States Senate, https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/class/v2amend22.htm [2] The Constitutionality of a Third Term for Donald Trump, FindLaw, https://www.findlaw.com/archives/politics/the-constitutionality-of-a-third-term-for-donald-trump/ [3] Kalshi Contract: Trump Re-Elected 2028, Kalshi, https://www.kalshi.com/contract/KAL220424-TRUMP-2028-RE-ELECTED [4] Trump's Third Term: A Legal Analysis, Lawfare, https://www.lawfareblog.com/trumps-third-term-legal-analysis
- The Twenty-second Amendment to the Constitution, ratified in 1947, prevents Donald Trump from being elected president more than twice due to the limitation of two terms in office.
- Despite ongoing discussions and betting, the public and judicial consensus so far supports enforcing the two-term limit for Donald Trump.
- In 2025, Representative Andy Ogles (R-Tennessee) introduced a House Joint Resolution aiming to permit a president to be elected for up to three terms, but as of the same date, the resolution remains with the House Judiciary Committee.
- Bookmakers such as Kalshi and William Hill have Trump's odds for a third term at 4/1 as of April 1, 2025, implying a 20% likelihood.
- Former President Donald Trump's second term is set to expire in January 2029, and no legal pathway exists for a third elected term without violating the Constitution.
- Legal scholars have debated the question of a two-term president serving a third term through ascension from the vice presidency, but a practical, non-constitutional amendment approach remains improbable.
- Ivanka Trump and Donald Trump Jr. have not publicly announced any intentions to run for presidential elections, and JD Vance is not currently associated with the aforementioned presidential election odds or discussions about a potential third term for Donald Trump.
