Potential Storm Forms Along the Southeast Coastline Over the 4th of July Weekend
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is closely monitoring a low-pressure system, currently referred to as Invest 92L, situated approximately 100-150 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida. The system has been exhibiting varying degrees of organization, according to recent reports.
As of the latest official NHC updates, the formation probabilities for Invest 92L sit at 70 percent within the next two days and 60–70 percent over the next week. However, some sources suggest a lack of clear organization as of early July 5[1][3][5].
The low-pressure system is expected to move generally northeast or north-northwest, potentially skirting or moving inland over the Carolinas before exiting back out to sea. Although the system may briefly become a tropical or subtropical depression or a low-end tropical storm, any intensification is expected to be minimal and short-lived[2][3].
According to the latest official NHC graphical outlook (July 5), there are currently no active tropical disturbances or expected tropical cyclone formation in the next seven days[4]. This suggests that Invest 92L may have weakened or lost its designation, or its threat window has passed. However, earlier reports clearly indicated active monitoring of the system.
The primary threat from Invest 92L is locally heavy rainfall, especially near the coasts of the Carolinas, where 1 to 4 inches of rain could fall. This could lead to localized flooding, though no flood watches were posted as of the last detailed forecast[2].
While the system may bring increased rain and storms to Florida (especially impacting 4th of July events), most models agree that impacts will shift away as the system moves north, resulting in drier air for areas like Tampa Bay and lower rain chances as the weekend progresses[1][3].
Rip currents are a concern, particularly with crowded beaches during the holiday weekend. Swimmers are advised to exercise caution and swim near lifeguards if possible[2].
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has announced that an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate Invest 92L later in the day[6]. The system is still being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.
**Note:** The latest NHC outlook (as of July 5, 2025) reports no active disturbances or expected tropical cyclone formation, indicating that the immediate threat from Invest 92L may have dissipated or is no longer being tracked as a significant system[4]. Earlier forecasts, however, detailed the potential impacts outlined above. The system is potentially affecting Georgia and the Carolinas, and squall bands are starting to affect the coastlines of Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida. Sea surface temperatures under the storm are relatively warm, but wind shear is less favorable for significant development.
- The low-pressure system, initially tracked as Invest 92L, is currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center despite the latest outlook not indicating any active disturbances or expected tropical cyclone formation.
- In the context of environmental-science and weather, the science community has been intensely studying Invest 92L, a low-pressure system predicted to potentially bring localized flooding to the coasts of the Carolinas, with minimal intensification expected and a potential shift in impacts as the system moves north.
