Potential setback: anticipated consequences of the European Union's plan to impose higher tariffs on Russian fertilizers
The European Parliament has voted to intensify tariffs on Russian and Belarusian fertilizers and agricultural products, aiming to mitigate economic impact and provide local importers with time to seek alternative suppliers. From July 2025, additional specific tariffs will be added to the existing ad valorem component of tariffs for fertilizers, gradually increasing to €40 per tonne for nitrogen fertilizers and €45 per tonne for mixed ones by 2028, eventually reaching a prohibitive level of €315 for nitrogen fertilizers and €430 per tonne for complex ones. For agricultural products, an ad valorem rate of 50% will be added to existing tariffs on most types of Russian agricultural products.
According to Nikanor Khalin, Senior Analyst at "Eiler Analytical Technologies," this gradual tightening of tariffs enables the EU to address the high share of Russian fertilizers in its imports, although weaning off them may take longer than anticipated. Agricultural communities, on the other hand, are concerned about the lack of attention to alternative supply sources and the potential impacts of the measures taken.
The new tariff scheme, proposed by the European Commission in January and supported by the European Parliament's relevant committee on international trade in May, now requires the agreement of the final joint text with the Council of the EU. After ratification, the document must be published in the official journal of the EU. The Council of the EU agreed on the need for the proposed tariffs in March.
The European Fertilizers Association, Fertilizers Europe, welcomed the decision, expressing concern over Russia's disruptive impact on fair competition and local producers. The European farmers' association, Copa-Cogeca, however, highlights the need for adequate attention to alternative supply sources and transparent market monitoring. Andrei Sizov, Director of the SovEcon analytical center, suggests that the phased halt of Russian imports of nitrogen and mixed fertilizers into the EU market stems from Russia's dominant share in European imports.
Analysts agree that leading suppliers such as Egypt, Algeria, Norway, China, and the US are likely to strive to fill the void left by the reduction in Russian volumes. The EU might increase imports from Morocco, Egypt, and Algeria, which together accounted for approximately 35% of all fertilizer imports into the EU in 2024. Domestic production is expected to play a significant role in replacement as well.
The introduction of new tariffs on Russian mineral fertilizers is driven by political motivations and local chemical companies seeking to edge out their direct competitors from the European market, according to independent industrial expert Leonid Hazanov. Analyst Alexander Korbut believes that the only Russian exports significantly affected by the tariffs are oilseed meal and cake, used as animal feed, as well as linseed oil. European farmers are more concerned about Ukrainian agricultural product supplies, which were significantly higher than those from Russia, and the EU is now planning to curb these supplies.
- The new tariff scheme on Russian and Belarusian fertilizers and agricultural products, aiming to mitigate economic impact and provide local importers with time to seek alternative suppliers, is expected to create a void that leading suppliers such as Egypt, Algeria, Norway, China, and the US may strive to fill.
- While the European Fertilizers Association welcomes the decision to intensify tariffs on Russian fertilizers, citing concerns over Russia's disruptive impact on fair competition and local producers, the European farmers' association, Copa-Cogeca, highlights the need for adequate attention to alternative supply sources and transparent market monitoring, considering that the EU might increase imports from Morocco, Egypt, and Algeria.
