Potential Perils of the Grey Area: Implications of a Battleless State for Ukraine
In the complex geopolitical landscape of Eastern Europe, Ukraine finds itself in a strategically vulnerable position due to the ongoing threat from Russia. As a result, Kyiv is seeking alternative security guarantees, moving away from the prospect of NATO membership and towards a system of security guarantees as a substitute.
This system could involve significant arms procurement from allies like the United States, with proposals for $90–100 billion worth of American weapons and advanced drone manufacturing cooperation. These purchases aim to improve Ukraine’s defensive capabilities, serving as a deterrent against further Russian aggression rather than relying on external military alliances.
Potential involvement or backing from Western countries, such as the U.S. and the UK, could also form part of these guarantees. This might include diplomatic or military support, although the specific formats of these guarantees are still under negotiation.
Economic and diplomatic sanctions against Russia could serve as a complementary form of security measure. The insistence is that these sanctions continue and are only lifted conditionally upon compliance with peace agreements. Compensation mechanisms requiring Russia to pay for wartime damages, potentially funded by frozen Russian assets abroad, could also reinforce the security guarantee framework indirectly through economic means.
The presence of ships from partner countries in the Black Sea would enhance surveillance capabilities, enable timely warnings of Russian military actions, secure freedom of navigation, ensure the safety of civilian and military ships, and make attempts at a maritime blockade more difficult. A rotating system of partner presence in the Black Sea would be a clear indication that the international community does not leave Ukraine unprotected against maritime threats.
In a frozen conflict situation with Russia, Ukraine seeks a multifaceted security guarantee composed of these significant arms procurement, sustained international pressure through sanctions, possible Western military and diplomatic support, and reparations from Russia. This approach is aimed at deterring further Russian aggression and stabilizing peace.
The NATO summit held in The Hague at the end of June was largely positively received in Ukraine, with a central point being the unanimous promise of all NATO member states to continue financing the Ukrainian armed forces and to consider the protection of Ukraine as an integral part of alliance security.
However, it is important to note that full NATO membership for Ukraine is not realistic in the foreseeable future. The Russian threat to Ukraine and NATO will continue independently of peace or ceasefire, and if Europe leaves Ukraine alone in the gray zone, it undermines its own long-term security.
As NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has warned, Moscow could be ready for a large-scale war in about five years. For Russia, a frozen conflict phase would mark the beginning of preparations for a new offensive. Thus, it is crucial that Ukraine and its allies remain vigilant and continue to explore and implement effective security measures to protect Ukraine's sovereignty and contribute to the common security of Europe.
- The pursuit of security guarantees for Ukraine extends to the realm of science, as Kyiv seeks collaborations with Western countries, including the United States and the UK, in advanced drone manufacturing, aiming to bolster Ukraine's defensive capabilities and deter further Russian aggression.
- The complex geopolitical landscape of Eastern Europe, marred by war-and-conflicts, politics, and general news, necessitates innovative security measures. In this context, economic and diplomatic sanctions against Russia, along with military support from partners and reparations from Russia, are being discussed as complementary forms of security for Ukraine, aiming to reinforce its sovereignty and contribute to the common security of Europe.
