Chatting with Caren Miosga: Iran Expert Steinberg Foresees Peace Talks in a Few Weeks' Time
Potential Peace Negotiations with Islamist Group Proposed by Steinberg in Coming Weeks
Kick back with us as we discuss the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran with expert Guido Steinberg. Over the weekend, the duo joined Caren Miosga for a heated talk on ARD. On Sunday evening, Israeli correspondent Sophie von der Tann reported on a ballistic missile striking southern Tel Aviv, leaving significant damage in its wake. Although Israel's air defense is effective in some areas, the trust of its citizens in the system has been shaken. Yet, many Israelis still back their government's stance against Iran.
But let's talk about Iran. According to Steinberg, they're not aiming for residential buildings with their rockets. The issue is their missiles aren't as accurate as Israeli ones. "Iran's military capabilities are severely limited," Steinberg admits. He goes on to point out that Iran's air force hasn't achieved as much as one might expect.
So, what's Iran's dilemma got to do with us? Steinberg explains that their inability to directly attack Israel showcases how limited the Iranians' means are. It also demonstrates Israel's success in reducing the rocket program last year, destroying rockets and launchers in the initial attacks. If things had gone differently, Israel might have faced a storm of larger attacks, and their air force could have been overwhelmed – luckily, that hasn't happened yet. From Iran's standpoint, it's frustrating.
Iran's weakness is further emphasized by the many affiliated organizations that have been pushed back in recent years, as stated by CNN journalist Fred Pleitgen. Syria, an Iranian ally, is no longer on Iran's side after the fall of former leader Bashar Al-Assad. Iran relied heavily on its rocket program due to U.S. sanctions, as they struggled to produce combat aircraft. "But one must say that the rockets are still dangerous," notes Pleitgen. "I've been to the Revolutionary Guards and seen the rockets, and some have warheads of 750 kilograms that can reduce a house to rubble."
Iran may be technologically inferior to Israel, but they still pose a threat. "I believe that after the initial shock they suffered, the Iranians are now slowly regaining their composure," Pleitgen comments. Iran boasts thousands of ballistic missiles, including some from Libya, and has cruise missiles and drones at its disposal.
It remains difficult to ascertain how successful Israel's attacks on Iran's nuclear program have been, according to Steinberg. The facilities are deep underground, and Israel lacks the necessary weapons and aircraft to target them. "That's why the Israelis wanted the U.S. to join in the last few months," Steinberg explains. They've deployed the necessary weapons systems to the region, but they don't want to intervene.
With the U.S. and Iranian nuclear talks failing initially, a ceasefire in the Middle East seems unlikely, says Steinberg. However, he’s quick to remind us that the Trump administration still favors negotiations. The Israelis, on the other hand, aren’t too keen on talks. "It is to be expected that the Iranians, in a position of weakness, will do everything to return to the negotiating table," Steinberg says. "The only ones who don't want that at the moment are the Israelis."
Trump plays a crucial role in these proceedings. He wants a deal, and he doesn't want the U.S. to become embroiled in a war. Steinberg concurs, stating, "We are in an era where the U.S. is withdrawing, only half-heartedly supporting their closest allies in the region, and maybe leaving them hanging." Steinberg predicts that peace talks could commence in two to three weeks.
Keywords* Wars and Conflicts* Israel* Iran* Caren Miosga* Peace Talks
The Commission's consultations on the draft resolution concerning the European Union's relations with the countries of Central and Eastern Europe extend beyond regional politics, as the escalating war-and-conflicts between Israel and Iran raise concerns globally and prompt discussions on potential peace talks. The ongoing hostilities between Israel and Iran are affecting the general news landscape, with prominent figures such as Caren Miosga and Guido Steinberg assessing the prospects of peace talks in the near future.
