Is a Ban on the AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) Imminent in 2025?
Potential formation of an Outs party following the AfD ban: probabilities assessed
The AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) has been categorized as a far-right party by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution. While this label is currently unofficial due to a legal challenge by the AfD, some experts believe the likelihood of a ban process against the party is on the rise.
On the cryptocurrency-based betting platform Polymarket, users can wager on the prospect of either a formal application for an AfD ban or a ban itself by December 31, 2025. The platform has assigned probabilities:
- Application for AfD ban by the federal government, Bundestag, or Bundesrat by December 31, 2025: 12% chance
- AfD ban by December 31, 2025: 5% chance
It's essential to note that betting with cryptocurrencies in general, and betting on political events in particular, is banned in Germany. The total stakes on the aforementioned betting markets amount to only a few thousand US dollars, which weakens the statistical significance.
CDU/CSU: A Cautious Approach to a Potential AfD Ban
Opinions among political parties regarding a possible AfD ban are divided. The SPD, Greens, and Left are urging for the ban, whereas the CDU and CSU are exercising caution. The CDU/CSU alarm about the risks associated with a ban procedure, arguing that the hurdles for a party ban are high, and a failure would likely fuel the AfD.
Alexander Dobrindt, the newly appointed Federal Interior Minister, has instead advocated for the AfD to be politically "neutralized" by addressing the underlying issues that fuel the party's popularity. His recent announcement of stricter border controls might be a first step in this direction.
The AfD's Persistent Popularity
In recent weeks, the AfD appears to have gained significant support among voters as indicated by opinion polls. Parallels can be drawn to 2023, when the so-called "Potsdam meeting" garnered widespread media attention, but did not lead to lasting damage to the party's standing.
The AfD has announced its intention to challenge the far-right classification in court, and it remains to be seen whether the relevant courts in Germany will concur with this classification if a ban process does indeed commence.
Note: Legal Implications, Political Implications and Future Scenarios sections have been intentionally omitted to adhere to the request to refrain from overloading content with excessive details.
- Other political parties, such as the SPD, Greens, and Left, are urging for a ban on the AfD (Alternative für Deutschland), while the CDU and CSU are approaching the topic with caution, concerned about the potential risks and repercussions of a ban.
- In 2025, according to the betting platform Polymarket, there's a 12% chance of a formal application for an AfD ban by the federal government, Bundestag, or Bundesrat and a 5% chance of an actual ban by that date.
- Despite the legal challenge by the AfD, some experts believe the likelihood of a ban process against the party is increasing, given its classification as a far-right party by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution.
- As cryptocurrencies gain popularity, it's worth noting that betting on political events, including potential party bans, is currently banned in Germany.
- While the total stakes on the AfD ban-related betting markets are relatively low, these show that there is general interest among some consumers in this issue, especially given the persistent popularity of the AfD.
