Potential for Tropical Storm Surges Over Independence Day Weekend Enhances
As the July 4th weekend approaches, the Atlantic hurricane season is gearing up to be an active and above-average one, despite a slower start than usual. The official season began on June 1, but by early July, only two named storms (Andrea and Barry) have formed, both outside the main development region of the Atlantic basin.
The first named storm, Andrea, was named on June 24, indicating a slightly delayed start compared to the typical first named storm around June 20. This year's season started later and more slowly than usual, but forecasts from Colorado State University predict an above-average hurricane season overall, with 17 named storms and nine hurricanes expected due to warmer sea-surface temperatures in the subtropical Atlantic and Caribbean.
Currently, a storm system is loitering off the Southeast coast, dragging rich tropical moisture across the coastal Southeast. If the system strengthens into a storm, it will be named Chantal, marking the third named storm of the season. Chantal poses an impactful flood threat to the United States, particularly the Carolina coast, where some areas could see over 3 inches of rain, while some areas in Florida could see up to 6 inches by the end of the holiday weekend.
The storm system is also causing trouble on a holiday weekend with roads and beaches packed. The system could lead to localized downpours, dreary beach days, a risk of dangerous rip currents, and rough seas. Portions of Florida and coastal Georgia could see flash flooding through Friday, with the storm threat shifting to the Carolina coast on Saturday and potentially lasting until Sunday.
Outside of the Southeast, most of the country will see ideal conditions for the July 4th weekend, particularly in the Northeast and West, where calm, mostly clear skies are expected from Friday on. However, parts of the Plains and Upper Midwest could see some strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and hail through the weekend.
In summary, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season started slightly later and more slowly than usual, but it is still expected to be an active and above-average season as it progresses. The first two named storms of the season, Andrea and Barry, were weak and short-lived tropical storms. It is essential to stay informed and prepared for any potential storm threats in the coming weeks.
The weather-related concerns extend to the environmental-science field, as the upcoming storm system, Chantal, could bring significant rainfall to the Carolina coast and Florida, potentially causing floods. Meanwhile, the ongoing science of meteorology predicts an above-average Atlantic hurricane season overall, with 17 named storms and nine hurricanes expected, warned by the anomalous warmer sea-surface temperatures in the subtropical Atlantic and Caribbean.
