Potential EU Division of Ukraine and Moldova amid Membership Path Discussion

Hit the Brakes on Ukraine, Full Speed Ahead for Moldova?

Here's the lowdown: The European Union might be ready to pull the ol' switcheroo and separate Moldova's EU accession process from Ukraine's, thanks to some serious hang-ups with Kyiv from none other than Hungary, according to EU Commissioner for Enlargement Maroš Šefčovič[1].

In an interview with Radio Svoboda, Šefčovič dropped this bombshell: "No member state opposes Moldova opening the first cluster," he said, hinting at the potential separation as early as June, when Brussels takes some crucial decisions on enlargement[1].

Why the separation? Good question! Seems Hungary's got a bone to pick with talks with Kyiv. This single obstacle has put a wedge between the joint progress of both Ukraine and Moldova[1]. Despite all EU member states being cool with starting negotiations with Moldova, Hungary's resistance specifically blocks Ukraine's advancement.

But wait! Moldova is making some serious strides here. In fact, they're looking like the model student in the group, feeling this historical EU membership moment[1]. There's even a possibility that Moldova could become an EU member by the end of Šefčovič's mandate in 2029—unless, of course, the EU doesn't get any new members during the current European Commission's term; that'd be considered a major flop[1].

Let's not forget that last year, no negotiating chapter was opened yet for both candidate countries, thanks to Hungary's blockage[1]. The European Commission, however, has confirmed that the screening process within Ukraine's accession negotiations has been happening at lightning speed—unprecedented for the EU, to be exact[2].

While sources from European Truth suggested that if Hungary continues blocking Ukraine's EU accession, Moldova might march on ahead[3], Ukraine's Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal insists that Ukraine has been achieving the fastest pace of accession to the European Union among all aspiring nations[3].

All balled up? Don't worry. There's still a flicker of hope that Ukraine could eventually get its act together and satisfy Hungary's concerns, assuming they don't play hardball and keep twisted reasons from politicizing the accession process[1].

Hungary's already kicked off a consultative survey on Ukraine's EU accession—the results of which, who knows, might help mend fences with our Eastern neighbors[4].

Footnotes:

[1] European Truth interview with Maroš Šefčovič by Radio Svoboda[2] European Truth (with reference to an interview with Šefčovič)[3] European Truth (in the context of a report)[4] European Truth (related to a Hungarian consultative survey on Ukraine's EU accession)

The EU Commissioner for Enlargement, Maroš Šefčovič, has suggested that Moldova's EU accession process might be separated from Ukraine's, which could commence as early as June.
Moldova seems to be faring well in the EU accession process, making significant progress and potentially becoming an EU member by 2029.
Hungary's opposition to talks with Kyiv has become a major impediment to the joint progress of both Ukraine and Moldova in the EU accession process.
Despite no negotiating chapter being opened for either Moldova or Ukraine last year, the European Commission claims that the screening process within Ukraine's accession negotiations is happening unusually swiftly.
While some sources suggest that Moldova might proceed further in the EU accession without Ukraine, Ukraine's Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal maintains that Ukraine is progressing at the fastest pace among all aspiring nations.
Hungary has initiated a consultative survey on Ukraine's EU accession, and the results of this survey might potentially bridge the gap with Ukraine.
There's still a chance for Ukraine to address Hungary's concerns and continue down the path towards EU accession, as long as both parties avoid politicizing the process and cooperate constructively.