Europe's EU Expansion Dilemma: Hungary's Roadblock and Moldova's Progress
Potential Division of Ukraine and Moldova in EU Membership Journey Proposed
With the European Union (EU) contemplating separating Moldova's and Ukraine's accession paths due to Hungary's continued obstruction, the future of these countries' EU membership looks uncertain, according to EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos.
During a recent interview with Radio Free Europe, Kos revealed that she “cannot rule out” separating the two countries' EU membership processes as early as June, when several expansion decisions are due in Brussels. Kos also expressed her belief that Moldova could potentially become an EU member before the end of her mandate in 2029.
Kos appreciates Moldova's commitment and dedication to the EU process, explaining that the nation is a "model student" among all countries. Conversely, she lamented Hungary's politicization of Ukraine's accession process and expressed regret that the country's progress has been thwarted by one member state.
Hungarian opposition to Ukraine's EU membership stems from a combination of political, economic, and sovereignty concerns. Economically, Hungarian officials warn that Ukraine's integration into the EU single market could lead to a flood of cheaper agricultural products and labor into Central Europe, jeopardizing domestic businesses and farmers. Premium products like GMO produce and lower-quality services are also cited as potential threats to Hungarian companies.
In addition, Budapest cites unresolved issues regarding the rights of ethnic Hungarians in Ukraine’s Transcarpathia region, a longstanding pre-war grievance, and positions itself as the EU’s most Russia-friendly state, opposing military aid to Ukraine and leveraging veto power to stall accession talks. The Hungarian government frames EU support for Ukraine as geopolitical overreach that threatens national sovereignty.
To strengthen its argument against Ukraine's EU membership, Hungary's government launched a national poll (April 19−30, 2025) explicitly discouraging support for Ukraine's bid, despite independent polls showing 58% of respondents favor accession. This move reinforces Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s narrative of defending the nation against Brussels' "forced" integration policies.
Meanwhile, Moldova faces procedural complications due to Hungary's broader stance on EU expansion priorities. While Moldova and Ukraine were granted candidate status together in June 2022, EU accession requires unanimity. Hungary’s veto threat over Ukraine creates a precedent that may embolden other member states to block Moldova’s bid on unrelated grounds, further delaying the prospect of the nation joining the EU.
The EU has flirted with the idea of bypassing unanimity through Article 7, which suspends voting rights for rule-of-law violations, although this requires all other member states to agree—a significant hurdle given Slovakia’s alignment with Hungary. Delays to Ukraine’s accession risk eroding momentum for Moldova's reforms, as Brussels prioritizes maintaining a united front on Eastern Partnership states.
Hungary's actions reflect a broader strategy to assert national sovereignty within the EU while capitalizing on institutional veto powers to influence geopolitical outcomes. The EU faces a crucial decision in navigating these complex dynamics and ensuring a balanced, inclusive expansion process that upholds the values and principles of the union.
- In the face of Hungary's continuous hindrance, the anticipated separation of Moldova and Ukraine's EU accession paths has cast doubt over their EU membership, as stated by EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos.
- Kos mentioned that she might initiate the separation of the two countries' EU membership processes as early as June in Brussels, where various expansion decisions are to be made.
- Optimistic about Moldova's potential EU membership, Kos views the nation as a "model student" among all countries, demonstrating their commitment and dedication to the EU process.
- Contrastingly, Kos criticizes Hungary for politicizing Ukraine's accession process, citing Hungary's economic, political, and sovereignty concerns as obstacles to Ukraine's membership.
- Hungary's opposition to Ukraine's EU membership is rooted in issues like cheaper agricultural products and labor flooding Central Europe, rights of ethnic Hungarians in Ukraine’s Transcarpathia region, and Hungary’s stance as the EU’s most Russia-friendly state.
- To bolster its argument against Ukraine's EU membership, Hungary's government conducted a national poll in April 2025, its results intentionally downplaying support for Ukraine's accession bid.
- Despite being granted candidate status along with Ukraine in June 2022, Moldova's EU accession might be delayed due to Hungary's veto threat over Ukraine and potential emboldenment of other member states to block Moldova's bid on unrelated grounds.
