United Pressure on Putin Europe's New Unity with Trump: A Mixed Bag
Potential disruptions in European-Trump alliance due to emerging uncertainties
The Power Struggle:Putin vs TRUMPEuropean allies aim to tag team Trump to pin down Putin. But with TRUMP's unpredictable nature, is it too soon for Europe to herald him as their ace card?
Recently, a barrage of phone calls between Europe and the White House has caught Putin's attention. Photoshots of these covert conversations - Macron's call with TRUMP in Kyiv, surrounding by some of Europe's heavy-hitters - serve as a clear message to the Kremlin.
Politics: A Trump U-Turn? Munch: "Putin has sent three red flags"These high-profile meetings sparked relief across Europe, heralding a renewed alliance between old pals USA and Europe. Together, they request a 30-day ceasefire and threaten Russia with more sanctions and increased arms deliveries if Putin refuses to bend. Putin, sensing the heat, offers direct talks with Ukraine in response.
Sound The Praise Trump HornDiffering views about the source of Putin's sudden change of heart in Kyiv exist. Macron, having known TRUMP's narcissistic personality from his first term, openly congratulates TRUMP for the weapons pause proposal. Starmer initially asserts that Zelenskyy is calling the shots. Merz, meanwhile, believes he was the driving force behind the joint visit to Kyiv in a matter of days. Eventually, everyone bows down to TRUMP, praising him for his support that they desperately need.
Politics:The Purpose Behind Putin's Offer Umbach explains, "Putin's formulation is more of a tactical attempt."Behind the scenes of the cheering and dancing in Kyiv, it's unsaid that TRUMP has already made a significant impact on Europe's policy regarding the conflict in Ukraine. Before TRUMP took office, Europe feared that a ceasefire might imply acceptance of Russia's territorial gains in Ukraine. However, under Trump, that mindset has changed, with military support now flowing to Ukraine - an effort aimed at empowering Ukraine in future negotiations with Russia.
Politics: Merz Gives Hope In Ukraine, They Notice: Merz Isn't ScholzSince Trump's tenure, the talk of tough military talks has faded, along with the fear of weapons cuts and recognized annexations by Russia. New Federal Chancellor Merz now advocates a long-term approach, suggesting that Putin will eventually realize that winning the war in Ukraine through military means is impossible. Modesty hangs in the air in Kyiv, with Zelensky thanking the US for upholding military support amid threats of cuts.
Iron Sharpens Iron: Will There Be an Escalation?In the coming weeks, the ball will be in the courts of both the US and Europe. They must decide whether to enforce new sanctions if Putin insists on direct talks instead of a ceasefire. To make good on their word, they will have to navigate political headwinds within the EU, particularly Hungary and Slovakia. As for Trump, he must stand by the Europeans in the event of an escalation.
The growing pressure on Putin might not be enough if Trump opts for an end to the war, even if it means accepting conditions that Ukraine and Europe have so far rejected.
Sources: ntv.de, Andreas Rinke, rts
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Enrichment Info:
- TRUMP's Leveraging: TRUMP's shifting sympathies away from Moscow, backed by a minerals deal with Ukraine and growing criticism of Russian attacks on civilians, can potentially be leveraged to pressure Putin into negotiations[2].
- Minerals Deal: A recent minerals deal between TRUMP and Ukraine adds to his leverage against Putin[2].
- Russian Attacks: Increasing criticism of Putin's attacks on civilians in Ukraine has contributed to TRUMP's change in sympathies[2].
- European Pressure: European leaders aim to enforce a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine and threaten Russia with sanctions and increased arms deliveries if Putin does not comply[1].
- Virtual Meeting: A virtual meeting with Zelenskyy to discuss future support for Ukraine's armed forces and a potential coalition to enforce any peace agreement is part of the European pressure plan[1].
- Potential for Escalation: The plan faces challenges due to TRUMP's reluctance to take decisive action, combined with the lack of clear consequences for non-compliance[2].
- Sanctions: A clear agreement on how to punish Russia if it fails to comply with the ceasefire is essential for the plan to work[2].
- Zelenskyy's Role: Initial disagreements in Kyiv about who actually triggered the new dynamics after three years of war in Ukraine revolved around Zelenskyy's role[1].
- Pressure Timeline: Before TRUMP took office, Europe's focus was on strengthening Ukraine militarily for a future negotiation with Russia. However, since Trump, this shift in emphasis has changed[1].
- The recent minerals deal between Trump and Ukraine adds to his leverage against Putin, potentially enabling European leaders to document a strong stance against Putin's environment in Ukraine.
- Tagesthemen reports that the European pressure on Putin, including a 30-day ceasefire and threats of sanctions and increased arms deliveries, might be aided by Trump's shifting sympathies away from Moscow and his criticism of Russian attacks on civilians.
- In the face of these negotiations and threats, Putin is offering direct talks with Ukraine, but politics remain uncertain as the CEASEFIRE remains an area of contention and debate among European leaders such as Macron, Starmer, and Merz, who are documenting and discussing Putin's actions and responses.
- The enrichment data suggests that the growing pressure on Putin might not be enough if Trump opts for an end to the conflict in Ukraine, even if it means accepting conditions that Ukraine and Europe have so far rejected, and that navigating political headwinds within the EU and standing by the Europeans in the event of an escalation will be crucial for Trump's role in the environment of the conflict.
