Potential Developments Foreseen for the Palestinians in the Current Year

The upcoming year for the Palestinians doesn't promise a rosy outlook, regardless of the significant advancements in the past two years. This stems from the dismal outcome of reconciliation efforts, coupled with the deepest mistrust and lack of credibility towards the Palestinian Authority and the Palestine Liberation Organization.

The Palestine Strategic Report of 2020-2021 highlighted the continued struggle of the Palestinian national project and the strife between key Palestinian forces, with no unifying national program in sight. Furthermore, the report pointed out the deterioration of official Palestinian institutions under the current leadership, making any meaningful change, such as fair elections, a distant dream.

What's more, the report underscored the inability of the current leadership to restore order within the Palestinian nation, as they continue to manage the situation tactically, rather than with sincerity, in order to ensure their continued dominance – mainly Fatah – and eventual re-election.

The weakened Palestinian Authority may resort to more repression and crackdowns to maintain power, risking increased opposition among the Palestinians. On the other hand, there is mounting pressure for an interim Palestinian leadership or a neutral party with full powers to realign Palestinian institutions.

Presently, such an interim leadership might comprise groups like Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), although other factions could potentially join in.

In the near future, there may be more opportunities for grassroots action and initiatives at home and abroad. This is due to the void created by the failing reconciliation process and the lack of vision and direction from the current Palestinian leadership.

Meanwhile, there may be increased pressure to suppress and marginalize resistance factions to minimize their influence over Palestinian affairs. However, the resistance groups should maintain their unity, remain guided by their moral compass, and effectively manage their resources while gaining wider public support to navigate this difficult period.

The Israeli political landscape has also gone through upheaval, carrying out four general elections between 2019 and 2021. Although this resulted in the formation of a new coalition government in June 2021, Benyamin Netanyahu's influence remains strong, given ongoing corruption charges against him.

Despite its economic and technological progress, Israel still struggles to engineer lasting peace and stability. It confronts persistent Palestinian resistance to its military occupation and overall rejection in the Arab world, despite normalized relations with some regional countries. Region instability, the declining quality of Israeli leadership, and the dwindling enthusiasm among younger Israelis to serve in occupied territories further complicate matters.

In 2020 and 2021, the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco signed normalization agreements with Israel. The UAE has been the most eager to cultivate political, economic, and tourist relationships with Israel. In 2021, trade between the two reached approximately $1.136 billion, five times the value of trade between Israel and Egypt, which has had normalized relations for over four decades.

Despite the normalization efforts, the Arab world remains unstable, and the widespread rejection of normalization persists. Instability, regime changes, and popular opposition to the "deal of the century" have put normalization efforts on hold, and regional regimes will continue to back the PA and PLO leadership while opposing resistance movements.

In reality, the normalization drive is expected to slow down due to the high costs and minimal benefits, the increasing mistrust and lack of credibility felt towards Israel, and the explosive situation in occupied Palestine. Israel will likely continue to be viewed as a suspicious and opportunistic partner, with no chance of ever being considered a true ally.

The upcoming year in Palestine seems bleak, despite advancements in the past two years, due to failed reconciliation efforts and distrust towards the Palestinian Authority and Palestine Liberation Organization.
The Palestine Strategic Report of 2020-2021 emphasized the ongoing struggle of the Palestinian national project and the strife between key Palestinian forces, with no unifying national program in sight.
The report also highlighted the deterioration of official Palestinian institutions, making meaningful change, such as fair elections, a distant dream.
The current leadership's inability torestore order within the Palestinian nation and their tactical management for continued dominance further complicates the situation.
The weakened Palestinian Authority might resort to increased repression and crackdowns to maintain power, leading to increased opposition among the Palestinians.
There is mounting pressure for an interim Palestinian leadership or a neutral party with full powers to realign Palestinian institutions.
This interim leadership might include groups like Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP).
In the near future, there may be more opportunities for grassroots action and initiatives due to the failing reconciliation process and the lack of vision from the current Palestinian leadership.
There may be increased pressure to suppress resistance factions to minimize their influence over Palestinian affairs.
The resistance groups should maintain their unity, remain guided by their moral compass, and effectively manage their resources while gaining wider public support to navigate this difficult period.
In Israel, the political landscape has undergone four general elections between 2019 and 2021, leading to a new coalition government in June 2021, but Benyamin Netanyahu's influence remains strong.
Despite its economic and technological progress, Israel continues to struggle to achieve lasting peace and stability due to Palestinian resistance to its military occupation and Arab world rejection.
In 2020 and 2021, the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco signed normalization agreements with Israel, but the widespread rejection of normalization persists across the Arab world.
Instability, regime changes, and opposition to the "deal of the century" have put normalization efforts on hold in the Arab world, and regional regimes are likely to continue backing the PA and PLO leadership while opposing resistance movements.
The normalization drive is expected to slow down due to high costs and minimal benefits, increasing mistrust towards Israel, and the explosive situation in occupied Palestine, with Israel being viewed as a suspicious and opportunistic partner.