Potential decline in Russian drone attacks on Ukraine due to Iran-Israel conflict, according to Estonian intelligence estimates.
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The situation of Russian drone attacks on Ukraine might experience a decrease, according to Ants Kiviselg, Estonian military intelligence commander, who spoke on June 20 via ERR broadcaster. This prediction is based on the possibility of Iranian Shahed drone production capabilities being affected by Israeli strikes.
Recent weeks have seen a significant escalation in Russian drone strikes across Ukraine, reaching a record-breaking 500 drones and missiles launched overnight on June 9.
Kiviselg suggests that while Russia has been able to localize and transfer the production of Shahed and Geran-type drones to its soil, some critical production nodes still originate from Iran.
Israel engaged in a series of air strikes against Iranian military and nuclear facilities on June 13, prompting responses from Tehran in the form of drone and missile attacks, heightening tensions in the Middle East.
Iran, a longstanding ally of Russia, has supplied the country with ballistic missiles and thousands of Shahed "kamikaze" drones for the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Russia has also commenced production of its own Shahed equivalents, called Geran.
Israeli strikes struck a Geran-type drone factory in Isfahan, while Ukrainian forces have targeted the Russian plant in Alabuga, Tatarstan, as acknowledged by Kiviselg. However, he also underscores Moscow's plans to maintain and increase drone production.
"So there is a possibility that in the near future we may see a certain decline in the use of drones," Kiviselg said. Despite this optimistic outlook, Estonian intelligence remains steadfast in their belief that Russia is preparing measures to continue and even intensify its drone production.
Russian forces have been regularly deploying Shahed-type drones for nighttime attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, overwhelming Ukrainian air defenses with massive swarms.
Ukraine's intelligence has alerted of the Russian defense industry's intent to ramp up the production of strike drones, aiming for 500 unmanned aircraft per month to support Russia's war effort.
In response, Ukraine has boosted its drone capabilities, doubling the production of long-range drones in 2024 compared to the previous year.
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It's worth noting that while Israeli strikes have disrupted Iran's drone production facilities, no direct connection between these actions and the drone attacks on Ukraine has been publicly reported. The Israeli strikes specifically targeted the production sites linked to the Shahed-136 drones, with no mention of them having an impact on Russian attacks in Ukraine. Iran continues to deploy Shahed-136 drones in attacks against Israel, despite these strikes.
Politics and war-and-conflicts intersect as Israel's air strikes on Iranian military and nuclear facilities prompted responses from Tehran, which in turn heightened tensions in the Middle East. General news reports suggest that Estonian military intelligence commander Ants Kiviselg anticipates a potential decrease in Russian drone attacks on Ukraine due to Iranian Shahed drone production capabilities being affected by these Israeli strikes. Meanwhile, sports headlines indicate that Ukraine has boosted its drone capabilities to counteract Russia's ongoing drone strikes, particularly the use of Shahed-type drones.
