Potential Consequences Following the Baku-Yerevan Joint Declaration Signing in Washington
In a significant development, Azerbaijan might consider lifting its arms embargo on Ukraine, following a joint declaration with Armenia. This decision, if implemented, could have far-reaching consequences for geopolitical dynamics and regional stability.
Firstly, strengthening Ukraine's defense capacity is a likely outcome. If Azerbaijan begins supplying weapons to Ukraine, it would significantly boost Ukraine's military capabilities amid its ongoing conflict with Russia. This shift from non-lethal to lethal aid could signal a potential break from neutrality or tacit support of Russia, drawing Azerbaijan more firmly into the Ukraine conflict indirectly.
Secondly, this move could signal a deterioration in Russia-Azerbaijan relations. Azerbaijan's threat to lift the embargo and supply arms to Ukraine is a direct warning to Moscow amid escalating tensions, including Russian strikes impacting Azerbaijani energy interests. This decision would mark a clear break from maintaining neutrality or supporting Russia, potentially drawing Azerbaijan more deeply into the conflict.
Thirdly, the peace deal signed in Washington on August 8, 2025, between Armenia and Azerbaijan, mediated by the US, aims to resolve a long-standing conflict in the South Caucasus and opens new transit corridors under US oversight (the TRIPP corridor). The lifting of the arms embargo by Azerbaijan complements this US-led pivot by reducing Russian influence and increasing Western ties in the region.
However, this development could come with increased geopolitical tensions in the region, particularly confronting Russia's traditional influence. The peace agreement itself seeks to stabilize and turn the South Caucasus into a trade and transit hub, but an Azerbaijani arms supply to Ukraine might complicate relations with Russia and provoke reactions from regional powers like Iran and Russia, both wary of the corridor and decreasing influence.
In summary, Azerbaijan lifting the arms embargo on Ukraine following the Armenia-Azerbaijan joint declaration is likely to deepen Azerbaijan’s alignment with Western interests, heighten tensions with Russia, and impact regional security dynamics in the South Caucasus by bolstering Ukraine militarily and reinforcing the US-mediated peace framework. This development advances a geopolitical shift away from Russian dominance while simultaneously risking escalations should Russia respond forcefully.
Meanwhile, Pashinyan, the leader of Armenia, has surrendered the Zanguezur Corridor as part of the deal with Azerbaijan, along with guarantees of sovereignty. Turkey, despite alignment with pan-Turkist policies under Erdogan, is unlikely to break off relations with Azerbaijan due to various strategic reasons. However, a shift to a Kemalist line in Turkey could negatively impact Azerbaijan.
It's important to note that the declaration signed in Washington is a political one, not legally binding. Iran can destabilize the regime in Azerbaijan as a response to the presence of US military companies in the Zangezur Corridor. Information has emerged that Baku may lift the embargo on transferring weapons to Ukraine, potentially marking a significant shift in regional dynamics.
As these events unfold, it remains to be seen how the geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus will evolve. The potential arms supply to Ukraine by Azerbaijan could further complicate the already complex political landscape of the region, with implications for both regional stability and great power rivalries.
