Potential Collapse of Netanyahu's Government due to Conscription Controversy

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Jerusalem's coalition crisis: Ultra-Orthodox exemptions and imminent collapse

The Israeli goverment's coalition, helmed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is hanging by a thread, caught in a contentious debate over drafting ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students. This escalating disagreement has created a constitutional crisis, notably involving the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, integral to Netanyahu's administration.

Current Crisis Unfolding

Ultra-Orthodox Stance: The Haredi parties are pressing for legislation that enshrines exemptions from military service for yeshiva students. If their demands are not met, they've made it clear they will depart the coalition, resulting in potential early elections[1][2][3].
Coalition's Delicate Balance: Netanyahu's coalition depends heavily on the 18 seats controlled by these parties. If they defect, the coalition could crumble, losing crucial support[2][3].
Possible Election Date: The coalition will tentatively consider October 21, 2025, as a potential election date should the crisis worsen and necessitate early polls[2].

Pressure from Opposition

Opposition Offensive: The opposition party Yesh Atid, led by Yair Lapid, has triggered a bill to dissolve the Knesset, set for a vote on June 11. This could potentially trigger the coalition's downfall if enough coalition members abandon ship[2].
Stability Attempts: In spite of Netanyahu's efforts to steady the coalition—such as reincorporating certain parties and passing the budget law—the conscription issue has become a major bone of contention[4].

Overall, the Israeli government coalition faces formidable challenges stemming from the conscription dispute, with the specter of early elections lurking if the ultra-Orthodox parties follow through on their threats.

[1] Times of Israel: "Ultra-Orthodox Parties Threaten to Leave Coalition Over Yeshiva Bill" (https://www.timesofisrael.com/ultra-orthodox-parties-threaten-to-leave-coalition-over-yeshiva-bill/)

[2] Haaretz: "Hardline Coalition Crisis Deepens: Ultra-Orthodox Parties Might Leave Gov't As Opposition Moves to Dissolve Knesset" (https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/politics/hardline-coalition-crisis-deepens-ultra-orthodox-parties-might-leave-govt-as-opposition-moves-to-dissolve-knesset-2.10512473)

[3] Jerusalem Post: "Coalition Crisis: Netanyahu Says Early Elections Could be Called Over Ultra-Orthodox Conscription Bill" (https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics/coalition-crisis-netanyahu-says-early-elections-could-be-called-over-ultra-orthodox-conscription-bill-682980)

[4] The Forward: "Netanyahu Struggles to Maintain Control Over Fragile Coalition" (https://forward.com/news/israel/454884/netanyahu-struggles-to-maintain-control-over-fragile-coalition/)

The political standoff within Israel's coalition government over drafting ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students is a matter of policy-and-legislation, with the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism advocating for legislation that ensures exemptions from military service, threatening to leave the coalition if their demands aren't met, potentially leading to early elections. The ongoing crisis, stemming from this issue, has stirred general-news discussions due to the coalition's precarious balance, relying on the 18 seats controlled by these parties, and the specter of potential early elections, if they defect.