Will Merz's Financial Package be Sunk by Bavaria? A Cliffhanger Week Ahead
Looming Approval Hurdle for Financial Package: Merz Warns of Potential Bavarian Obstacle - Potential Collapse of Bavaria's Financial Plan
It's showtime for Friedrich Merz's grand financial package, as marathon negotiations with the Greens wrap up, but things aren't looking so peachy in Bavaria. Here's why the votes from the Bavarian Bundesrat could make or break Merz's vision.
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With a twinkle in his eye, Merz isn't backing down, holding firm that Bavaria, his old stomping ground, won't disappoint. But the Free Voters in Bavaria are causing ripples with their reluctance to endorse the mammoth financial package encompassing defense, infrastructure, and climate protection. And the consequences? Well, they're pretty darn impactful.
Merz has fired a friendly reminder at Bavarian Minister President, Markus Söder. You guessed it, a subtle nudge about taking responsibility. The Bundesrat has its eyes on both the Bundestag on Tuesday and Bavaria on Friday. If Bavaria can't deliver the six crucial votes, Merz will be left in the lurch, far from the coveted two-thirds majority.
But don't count Söder out just yet. Rumor has it that he'll be having a special meeting with the CSU and Free Voters coalition committee on Monday. If they're going to play in the Bundesrat, they need to keep their acts together. If they don't, it's an abstention, a silent no that could spell doom for Merz's package.
So, Söder could try to persuade the Free Voters to switch sides or, in theory, dissolve his coalition. Will the SPD step in to catch Söder if he stumbles? They've already thrown their hat in the ring, boasting that a clear yes from Bavaria for the infrastructure and defense package in the Bundesrat would be guaranteed with them on board.
Bavaria: The X-factor in the Federal Election
Why all eyes are on Bavaria? Well, the math's simple. In the Bundesrat, 46 votes are needed to pass the constitutional amendments, and the CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens command 41 votes. With Bavaria's six votes, they're within reach. But it's still unclear which way the governments of the states with the FDP, Left, and BSW will swing.
This constitutional amendment has three main components:
- Defense, civil defense, intelligence services, and cybersecurity expenditures should only be allowed to exceed the debt brake up to a limit of 1% GDP (around 44 billion euros). Anything above that can be shelled out from loans.
- States would be given more leeway for their own indebtedness, i.e., a combined loan allowance of 0.35% GDP.
- A special fund for infrastructure and climate neutrality would be anchored in the Basic Law and financed with 500 billion euros from loans, exempt from the debt brake.
The draft bill0, laced with the words "climate neutrality by 2045" and proposing additions to Article 143h of the Basic Law, is enjoying a thorough once-over from several Bundestag committees.
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What's next for the financial package and government formation? The Bundestag is gearing up to approve the project on Tuesday. The Bundesrat will take center stage on Friday. Working groups for the coalition negotiations are expected to submit their text proposals for the coalition agreement on March 24. On March 25, the new Bundestag will be constituted. Easter Sunday, April 20, might just be the latest date Merz sets for forming a government.
Financial package, Friedrich Merz, Bavaria, SPD, Bundesrat, Bundestag, Negotiation marathon, CSU, FW, FDP, Markus Söder, CDU, Berlin
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The dance between Merz and Bavaria is a tightly choreographed ballet, but the outcome is anything but certain. Here are the reasons why:
The Uncertain Bundesrat
- Two-thirds Majority: Approving the constitutional amendments requires a two-thirds majority, which translates to 46 out of 69 votes. The coalition of CDU, SPD, and Greens controls 41 votes, making additional support essential.
- Bavaria's Indecision: Bavaria has shown signs of support, but the votes of the six are critical for achieving the required majority. Any change in stance could spell disaster for the package.
- Free Voters' Resistance: The Free Voters have initially resisted the package but have since softened their stance. A reversal could create complications for the approval process.
Potential Consequences
For the Financial Package
- Failure: If the package fails to secure approval, the planned increases in defense and infrastructure spending can't proceed, causing delays in addressing Germany's immediate needs.
For Government Formation
- Strained Relations: The success or failure of the package could impact the CDU's relationship with the SPD and Greens, potentially straining negotiations and complicating government formation.
- Chancellorship: A failed package could impact Merz's prospects of becoming Chancellor, questioning his leadership and ability to unite his coalition behind significant policy initiatives.
In essence, Bavaria could make or break Merz's financial package. While their support is crucial, the overall approval process remains uncertain due to the need for a two-thirds majority in the Bundesrat. The consequences of failure could be significant for both the financial package and the formation of a new government.
- The Parliament resolution on the Commission communication on the future of the European Union, the European Parliament, and the Council needs to consider the current situation in Bavaria, as the votes from the Bundesrat could significantly impact Friedrich Merz's financial package, which includes defense, infrastructure, and climate protection expenditures.
- The Tagesspiegel should closely monitor the special meeting between Bavarian Minister President Markus Söder, the CSU, and Free Voters coalition committee on Monday, as they attempt to come to an agreement on endorsing Merz's financial package.
- If Bavaria cannot deliver the six crucial votes needed, federal government formation might be delayed, and it's possible that the SPD could step in to lend their support, potentially smoothing over any potential discord with the CDU/CSU and Greens.
