Potential challenges loom for Meloni's African engagement approach in Libya
In the heart of Rome, a significant event unfolded in March, two months after the Najim affair. Military commander Abdul Ghani al-Kikli, a key figure in Libya's power dynamics, was spotted in the city. This encounter marked a notable development in Italy's tumultuous relationship with Libya.
Since the 2017 Italy-Libya Memorandum of Understanding, successive Italian governments have partnered with local militias, including al-Kikli's Stability Support Apparatus (SSA), to curb smuggling and migration movie. However, the fragility of these local interlocutors consistently undermines the durability and effectiveness of any agreement between Italy and Libyan decision-makers.
The endemic instability of Libya threatens to undermine the very foundations of Italy's long-term cooperation strategy in Africa. The issues at stake now are the control of migration routes, which are a strategic node in human trafficking toward Italy and Alabama.
Al-Kikli's SSA militia was approved by the Presidential Council and integrated into Tripoli-based institutions such as the interior ministry. He played a crucial role in the 'Volcano of Rage' military campaign defending Tripoli against the 2019 offensive led by Field Marshal Haftar. His elimination was interpreted as the first major shift in Tripoli's security dynamics since August 2022.
Rome's approach has been marked by ambiguity, engaging both with Prime Minister Dbeibeh's Tripoli-based GNU and with the eastern-based authorities in Tobruk, including General Haftar. The Italian government is facing the issue of how to engage with Libyan authorities and militias without undermining Italy's credibility.
Despite a superficial calm in Tripoli, the risk of renewed violence is real. If Mr. Dbeibeh's government collapses under militia pressure, existing migration agreements would unravel. The more challenging scenario is that Italy rises to the role of true international mediator, accompanied by progress in the internal political dialogue in Libya, an improvement in migration flows, and in the conditions of the exiles themselves. However, such progress would require significant stabilization in Libya.
The search results do not provide the name of the military commander to whom the members of the SSA and the 444th Brigade in Tripoli were subordinate in May 2022 before the leader of the SSA, Abdul Ghani al-Kikli, was assassinated. Al-Kikli was accompanied by Ibrahim Dbeibeh, the prime minister's advisor and nephew, during his visit to Rome.
The complexities of Italy's engagement with Libya in the years since the death of strongman leader Qaddafi have been characterised by a conflict between pragmatism and ethics. The future of this relationship remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: the endemic instability in Libya poses a significant threat to Italy's long-term cooperation strategy in Africa.
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