Potential Category 4 Hurricane "Erin" Forecast to Affect New York City by Midweek
Hurricane Erin, the first major storm of the 2025 Atlantic season, has wreaked havoc in the Atlantic but is expected to spare New York City and the Northeast coast from a direct hit.
The Category 5 hurricane, which exploded over the weekend with winds of 160 mph, has weakened significantly and is now a Category 1 storm with winds of 75–90 mph as it approaches the northern Atlantic.
Erin is expected to move over the western Atlantic between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda, staying well offshore from New York City and the Northeast. The storm's path is being influenced by a high-pressure system and a cold front, pushing it eastward, away from the coast.
Dangerous swells, heavy rain, and tropical storm conditions may affect coastal areas from Florida to New England, but severe impacts like major flooding or wind damage in New York City and the Northeast are unlikely. The storm surge threat is mainly along parts of the southern East Coast, like the Outer Banks, not the Northeast.
NYC beaches were closed on August 20th and 21st due to Hurricane Erin, and the city's Parks Commissioner, Rodriguez-Rosa, has urged New Yorkers not to enter the water.
In North Carolina, the eye of Hurricane Erin is forecast to pass 150-250 miles east of the Outer Banks on Thursday. The Carolinas could see 60-80 mph wind gusts, storm surge up to 6 feet, and waves of 15-20 feet crashing ashore.
Experts consider Hurricane Erin extremely serious, and it had one of the largest 24-hour pressure drops ever recorded in the Atlantic before September. However, its forecast path keeps it offshore and steering it northeastward away from New York City and the Northeast coast. The storm is projected to weaken gradually and become post-tropical by Saturday, August 30, 2025, while curving back over the Atlantic before passing south of Atlantic Canada.
[1] National Hurricane Center (2025). Hurricane Erin Advisory 25. Retrieved from https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/erin/advisory_25.shtml [2] National Weather Service (2025). Hurricane Erin Public Advisory 25. Retrieved from https://www.weather.gov/saf/hurricane_erin_public_advisory_25 [3] The Weather Channel (2025). Hurricane Erin: Path, Impacts, and Forecast. Retrieved from https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-erin-path-impacts-forecast [4] AccuWeather (2025). Hurricane Erin: Wind Speeds and Tropical Storm Warnings. Retrieved from https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/hurricane-erin-wind-speeds-and-tropical-storm-warnings/1000420008
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