Potential catastrophic death toll worldwide from a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan
Tensions between India and Pakistan are on a boil again, with the latest terror attack in Kashmir pushing the two nations to the brink of war.
Their relationship, marked by conflict, aggressive diplomacy, and mutual suspicion, especially over the beautiful Himalayan region, has taken another turn for the worse. In a devastating incident this week, gunmen attacked a group of tourists, mainly Indians, near the picturesque town of Pahalgam, killing 26 people.
India swiftly accused Pakistan of being behind the attack but didn't provide concrete evidence. In retaliation, it downgraded diplomatic ties, suspended a crucial water-sharing treaty with Islamabad, and revoked all visas issued to Pakistani nationals.
Pakistan responded by calling these actions irresponsible and canceled visas for Indian nationals, suspended all trade with India, including through third countries, and closed its airspace to Indian aircraft. It also warned that any attempt by India to stop or divert the flow of water between them, a lifeline for Pakistan's 240 million people, would be considered an "act of war".
Worries of nuclear confrontation
Over the years, India and Pakistan have beefed up their armies and nuclear arsenals. India conducted its first nuclear test in 1974, followed by another in 1998, and Pakistan responded with its own tests just a few weeks later. Today, the two countries hold hundreds of nuclear warheads, missile delivery systems, advanced fighter jets, and modern weapons for a potential showdown.
While the chances of a deliberate nuclear war might be low, the current tensions highlight the staggering human and environmental costs of such a conflict.
A team of scientists previously investigated the implications of a hypothetical nuclear war between India and Pakistan. In a bleak scenario, they projected that depending on the number and yield of weapons used, between 50 to 150 million people could be killed. Apart from the cities destroyed, millions more would be injured, and critical infrastructure would be decimated.
Even a 'localised' nuclear exchange could trigger a mini ice age
Surprisingly, the consequences of such a war wouldn't be limited to India and Pakistan either. The study found that the smoke billowing from burning cities could block sunlight, triggering a global temperature drop of up to 10C. This could take a decade to recover from, crippling agriculture worldwide and leading to mass famine.
Professor Brian Toon, a leading expert on climate and atmospheric science, warned that even a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan could plunge the world into an "ice age." His study stemmed from a journalist's query in the early 2000s amid soaring tensions between the two countries.
While exact casualty figures for a current conflict between India and Pakistan are uncertain, historical Cold War estimates for regional nuclear conflicts suggest millions of deaths due to blast effects, fires, and acute radiation exposure. With both countries' arsenals expanding, the stakes have never been higher.
- The recent terror attack in Kashmir has triggered a downgrade in diplomatic ties between India and Pakistan, with both countries revoking visas issued to each other's nationals.
- The latest incident in Kashmir has been a trigger, forcing politicians to focus on war-and-conflicts between India and Pakistan, despite the devastating human and environmental costs such conflicts could have.
- The ongoing tensions between India and Pakistan over the beautiful Himalayan region, marked by politics of mutual suspicion and aggressive diplomacy, have pushed these nations closer to a war that could involve nuclear weapons.
- The possibility of a nuclear war between India and Pakistan, given their expanded nuclear arsenals and missile delivery systems, could trigger a global crisis, with effects such as a mini ice age due to smoke billowing from burning cities.
