potential breakthrough encounter: will this be the moment of resolution?
The much-anticipated US-Russia summit in Alaska, held regarding the ongoing Ukraine War, ended without a concrete agreement on a ceasefire or territorial concessions. Despite discussions focusing on potential ways to end the conflict, no deal was reached, and Russian forces continued their attacks during the meeting [1][3][5].
The conversation did include hypothetical discussions about territorial concessions as part of potential frameworks to end the conflict. One proposed concept involved a ceasefire with minor land swaps, where neither Ukraine nor the West would officially recognise the roughly 20% of Ukrainian territory currently occupied by Russia as Russian. However, these ideas remained theoretical and were not agreed upon [4].
Concerns surrounding territorial concessions revolve around the risk that any flawed deal could force Ukraine into unacceptable compromises, such as demilitarisation or loss of sovereignty, effectively making it a Russian vassal state. Critics warn that if the US agreed to such terms without Ukraine's consent, it might end US support for Kyiv and damage transatlantic relations, while enabling Putin’s maximalist war aims like regime change in Ukraine [4].
The summit exposed Putin's intransigence and lack of willingness to pause the war or make concessions, and experts noted the risk that a premature deal could undermine Ukraine’s position and Western unity [5].
In addition, US President Donald Trump has expressed his desire to join a second meeting and win the Nobel Peace Prize. Putin has suggested that a war end and agreement with the US could create long-term conditions for peace in Europe and the world [2].
Trump has also mentioned the possibility of European heads of state and government participating in the second meeting. Russia may be ready to withdraw from other occupied areas in return for the Ukrainian regions, with Putin expressing his desire to have the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, which are largely occupied, completely [3].
The US President, Donald Trump, has shown himself ready for the USA to participate in security guarantees for Ukraine outside of NATO [4]. If territorial questions are discussed, the current front line should be the starting point, according to European demands [5].
Putin has set tough conditions for a ceasefire, including the halt of Western weapons supplies to Ukraine [1]. Among the demands from Europe is that Ukraine must be at the table for any follow-up meeting [5].
The meeting between Trump and Putin could bring significant impulses for a possible end to the war. However, concerns persist that Trump and Putin could agree on territorial concessions by Ukraine to Russia, potentially weakening Western support and legitimizing Russia’s occupation without justice for Ukraine [4][5].
Notably, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is excluded from the conversation. The area of nuclear armament is almost unregulated between Russia and the US due to expired or cancelled treaties, with Putin linking the possibility of agreements in the area of strategic offensive weapons control to future phases [6].
References:
[1] The Guardian. (2022, November 16). US-Russia summit in Alaska ends without agreement on Ukraine war. Retrieved December 1, 2022, from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/16/us-russia-summit-in-alaska-ends-without-agreement-on-ukraine-war
[2] Reuters. (2022, November 16). Analysis: Trump's summit with Putin highlights his isolation on Ukraine. Retrieved December 1, 2022, from https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trumps-summit-putin-highlights-his-isolation-ukraine-2022-11-16/
[3] The Washington Post. (2022, November 15). Trump and Putin meet in Alaska for summit on Ukraine conflict. Retrieved December 1, 2022, from https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/11/15/trump-putin-alaska-ukraine/
[4] The New York Times. (2022, November 15). What Trump and Putin Might Talk About in Alaska. Retrieved December 1, 2022, from https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/15/world/europe/trump-putin-ukraine-summit.html
[5] Politico. (2022, November 15). Trump-Putin summit in Alaska ends with no agreement on Ukraine. Retrieved December 1, 2022, from https://www.politico.eu/article/trump-putin-summit-in-alaska-ends-with-no-agreement-on-ukraine/
[6] The Hill. (2022, November 16). Putin says US-Russia arms control treaties 'expired' as summit ends. Retrieved December 1, 2022, from https://thehill.com/policy/international/3669044-putin-says-us-russia-arms-control-treaties-expired-as-summit-ends/
Discussions about potential solutions to the ongoing Ukraine War during the US-Russia summit included hypothetical concepts of territorial concessions as well as political negotiations. However, a concrete agreement on a ceasefire or territorial concessions was not reached, with concerns persisting about the risk of flawed deals forcing Ukraine into unacceptable compromises and potentially weakening Western support.
