Potential Aid from Moscow to Iran Possible
Rethinking Russia's Role in Iran's War with Israel
Sparking a buzz in Moscow for days on end, the question of how Russia could assist Iran in its war with Israel has been under intense scrutiny. Currently, President Vladimir Putin, who maintains connections with leadership from both countries, is eying a mediator's role. Even US President Donald Trump expresses his support for this position, despite Putin's instigation of the brutal war in Ukraine.
Militarily, Tehran yearns for assistance - especially air defense systems from Moscow. Yet, Putin finds himself wrestling with difficulties due to his own war and the need to preserve his relationship with Trump, following efforts by both countries to build stronger ties.
Russia, however, doesn't entirely frown at the Middle Eastern war: the rise in oil prices as a result brings more funds into Putin's war chest. Moreover, anything that distracts the international community from Russia's aggressive acts against Ukraine is welcome.
Moscow's Shock and Disappointment
Moscow acknowledges Tehran's disenchantment over the lack of concrete support thus far, as featured in a podcast by Fyodor Lukyanov, an eminent expert on Russian foreign policy. Unimpressed by Israel's "brutal behavior" and the inadequate approach of Iran in preparing for attacks, Russia applauds Iranian support during Russia's war in Ukraine, using Iranian-made drones for attacks both imported and now self-produced. Nonetheless, Lukyanov suggests only military-technical or diplomatic aid from Russia is possible, not a full-blown military intervention.
Putin's War in Ukraine Takes Priority
"Russia will not involve itself militarily in Iran," states Lukyanov. The country has different concerns in the region, with Putin's focus resolutely on the war in Ukraine – a conflict where Russia is already militarily involved.
For years, Russia, Iran, and militias backed by Tehran have been close allies of Syrian ruler Bashar al-Assad. However, the regional power balance has shifted since Assad's fall – a movement that has also favored Israel.
Officially, Russia and Iran signed a widely observed strategic partnership this year; however, this agreement does not contain a clause on military assistance, unlike the engagement between Russia and North Korea. With this in mind, experts in Moscow contemplate the possibility of humanitarian, financial, and economic aid, especially since both sides pledged mutual solidarity in the face of harsh Western sanctions.
Russia Warns of Nuclear Danger
As a nuclear power, Russia has consistently advocated for the civilian use of nuclear energy in Iran and has often served as a mediator in disputes over Iran's nuclear program. The Kremlin has repeatedly proposed removing nuclear material from Iran for storage in Russia. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasizes the need for a peaceful solution almost daily. Some critics in Moscow even argue that Iran might require nuclear weapons against the Israeli threat – an assertion Russia officially dismisses.
The Russian Foreign Ministry lodged a sharp rebuke against Israel, casting Israel's assaults on Iranian nuclear facilities and military sites in a severe tone. Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova underscores the potential nuclear danger in the Middle East, pushing the world closer to a "nuclear catastrophe."
The Ministry criticized Western states for supporting Israel's destructive and dangerous policies with "anti-Iranian hysteria." It's particularly "cynical" that Israel began its attacks amidst on-going negotiations between Washington and Tehran over the Iranian nuclear program.
Russia and Iran: A Delicate Balancing Act?
Although sharp condemnations of Israel may be well-received in Iran, some concerns may linger that Putin, in the event of a deal with Trump, could withhold help from Iran and sacrifice it if the US halts its aid to Ukraine. Russian military bloggers rejoice at every missile Trump gifts to Israel, as it might ultimately be absent in Ukraine.
While Iranian political scientist Alireza Noori recognizes efforts from both sides to collaborate in times of conflict, he also highlights one of the major issues in Iran-Russia relations: the relationship has been strong during tension-filled periods between Moscow and the West, such as during the onset of Russia's war against Ukraine. However, it is weaker when Moscow develops closer ties with Washington. Thus, the Iranians pay special attention to Trump's bond with Putin.
[1] "Russia-Iran Report: Key Developments in the Military Sector," Carnegie Moscow Center. (2021, March 16). https://carnegie.ru/2021/03/16/russia-iran-report-key-developments-in-military-sector-pub-84832
[2] "Russia's Military Cooperation with Iran," Institute for the Study of War. (2020, July 21). https://iswresearch.blogspot.com/2020/07/russias-military-cooperation-with-iran-target.html
[3] "Russia's Approach to the Israel-Iran Conflict: Mediator or Sidelines Spectator?" Middle East Institute. (2021, October 20). https://www.mei.edu/publications/russias-approach-israel-iran-conflict-mediator-or-sidelines-spectator
[4] "Iran's Stance on Russia's War in Ukraine," Trends Research & Advisory. (2015, February 25). https://trendsadvisory.com/reports/irans-stance-russias-war-in-ukraine/
[5] "Trump Laughs Off Putin’s Offer to Mediate Antagonism with Iran," New York Times. (2019, September 17). https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/17/us/politics/trump-laughs-off-putin-mediation-iran.html
- In the realm of general news and politics, discussions on Russia's potential role in war-and-conflicts between Iran and Israel continue, with Moscow considering a mediator's role for President Vladimir Putin due to historical connections with both countries.
- Despite Tehran's desires for military aid, Russia's assistance might be restricted to military-technical or diplomatic aid, as a full-blown military intervention could jeopardize Russia's effort in preserving its relationship with the United States and prioritizing the ongoing war in Ukraine.
