Russia's Role in Iran's War with Israel: A Delicate Balancing Act
Potential support from Moscow to Iran - Potential Aid for Iran by Moscow?
Let's dive into the burning question on everyone's mind: Could Russia tip the scales in favor of Iran during its heated conflict with Israel? Over the past few days, Moscow has been abuzz with discussions on this topic, with Vladimir Putin, who enjoys connections with both parties, offering mediation services. Surprisingly, even Donald Trump has given his stamp of approval to this proposal, despite Russia's own involvement in a brutal war in Ukraine.
The question remains: Could Iran benefit from some military muscle from Russia, specifically Moscow's air defense systems? Putin finds himself in a tricky situation, facing challenges not only due to his own war but also the need to preserve his relationship with Trump. Improved relations between Moscow and Washington are on the horizon.
Russia isn't exactly thrilled about the Middle East war, but they do see a silver lining: A spike in oil prices, which fills Putin's war chest, and a diversion of global attention away from Russia's attacks against Ukraine.
Russia Stunned by Israel's "Brutality"
Moscow is well aware of the disappointment in Tehran due to the lack of concrete support thus far. Experts, like well-known Russia foreign policy analyst Fyodor Lukyanov, acknowledge Moscow's shock over Israel's "brutality" and Iran's poor readiness for the attacks.
Russia appreciates Iran's support during the Ukraine war. In fact, Russia even uses drones designed in Iran for their attacks. However, Lukyanov suggests that only military-technical or diplomatic support is likely from Russia, not a full-blown military deployment in Iran.
Putin's War in Ukraine Takes Priority
Despite their shared interests in the region, "Russia will not become militarily involved in Iran," says Lukyanov. Why? "Russia has a priority – and that is the war in Ukraine." Russia is heavily engaged in this conflict.
For years, Russia and Iran, along with Iran-backed militias, have been staunch allies of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. However, the power dynamics in the region have shifted since his fall, with Israel gaining more traction.
However, the strategic partnership agreement signed between Russia and Iran in January 2025 does not contain a mutual defense clause, unlike Russia's agreement with North Korea. Experts in Moscow predict that humanitarian, financial, and economic aid could be on the table given the mutual solidarity pact both sides have pledged in the face of tough Western sanctions.
Russia Warns of Nuclear Danger
Russia has always supported the civilian use of nuclear energy in Iran and has served as a mediator in the nuclear program conflict. Russia has even offered to store nuclear material from Iran, stressing the importance of a peaceful resolution. However, some experts in Moscow are beginning to question whether Iran might not be better off with nuclear weapons in the face of the Israeli threat. Officially, Russia rejects the possibility of Iranian nuclear weapons.
The Russian Foreign Ministry strongly criticized Israel for alleged "atrocities" against Iranian nuclear facilities and military, using a strongly-worded tone. Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova warned of a nuclear danger in the Middle East, potentially leading the world towards a "nuclear catastrophe." The Ministry also pointed the finger at Western states, accusing them of supporting Israel's disruptive and dangerous policies with "anti-Iran hysteria."
Is Russia Abandoning Iran for Trump?
While such harsh condemnations of Israel are popular in Iran, there are concerns that Putin, in a potential deal with Trump, might hold back support from Iran in exchange for the US ceasing aid to Ukraine. Russian military bloggers are already celebrating, stating that every missile Trump gives to Israel would mean one less for Ukraine.
Iranian political scientist Alireza Noori, writing for the journal "Russia in Global Politics," acknowledges the attempts by Tehran and Moscow to stand together amidst conflicts. However, he also highlights one of the "main problems in Iran-Russia relations": the relationship is strong during periods of tension between Moscow and the West, like at the start of Russia's war against Ukraine. But it's different when there's more harmony between Moscow and Washington, which is why Tehran is closely watching Trump's relationship with Putin.
- Iran
- Russia
- Moscow
- Israel
- Vladimir Putin
- Tehran
- Ukraine
- Strategic Partner
- Middle East conflict
- Donald Trump
- Fyodor Lukyanov
- Conflict
- Kremlin
- St. Petersburg
- US President
- Oil price
- Drone
Insights:
- Russia is unlikely to provide military support to Iran, given its prioritization of resources for the ongoing war in Ukraine and the desire to avoid escalating the conflict.
- While Russia has supplied Iran with some defense materiel in the past, this has not significantly increased Iran's offensive or defensive capabilities against Israel.
- Russia aims to maintain diplomatic support for Iran while reducing its own military involvement, as the conflict benefits Russia economically and strategically by contributing to higher oil prices and diverting Western attention away from Ukraine.
- The European Parliament, in a resolution, expressed concerns about the European Union's role in the fight against terrorism, urging all member states to strengthen their cooperation with the Commission and other institutions to ensure a coherent policy.
- Politics and general news continue to monitor the delicate balancing act between Russia and Iran, with Vladimir Putin finding himself in a tough position as both Iran and the United States seek his mediation in their conflict, while Russia's own war in Ukraine demands attention and resources.
