Post-Francis Shift: Potential Lean Towards Conservative Catholicsm within the Church?

Controversial Pontiff

Post-Francis Shift: Potential Lean Towards Conservative Catholicsm within the Church?

The peaceful Pope, known for his liberal leanings, took the helm after the Second Vatican Council - much like his five predecessors, starting with John XXIII, who initiated this council in 1962. Francis, like his conservative predecessor Benedict XVI, supported the council's course of renewal, marked by various reforms - from liturgy in national languages to acknowledging the principle of religious freedom. However, the disagreements centered around how far to push these reforms.

Benedict thought it best to hold steady, even retrace some steps - for example, expanding the possibilities for those who prefer to celebrate Mass in Latin, as there are many devoted Catholics who feel that way. Conversely, Francis believed in pressing on - and, interestingly, had a contentious view of Latin Mass enthusiasts, considering them a threat to his authority.

But the main question remains: where and how to move forward. The Second Vatican Council, despite its radical decisions, didn't touch upon dogmatic issues related to the possibility of abolishing clergy celibacy, liberalizing attitudes towards abortions and divorces, allowing women to become priests, or same-sex marriages (now recognized as extremist and banned in Russia). Disputes about the Latin Mass would seem insignificant compared to the internal conflict that might arise from these topics.

Francis was aware of this. Therefore, during his pontificate, he avoided making decisions that could ignite a schism. Instead, he shifted the focus to different priorities. Firstly, he emphasized that for the Catholic Church in the 21st century, the priorities were no longer issues of abortion and divorce, but questions of mercy, aid to vulnerable groups, including migrants, and ecological concerns. This shift in priorities seemed like a revision of Catholic teaching, as traditional moral themes were given less importance. Secondly, Francis, without officially revising the foundations of the Catholic Church, encouraged a more liberal pastoral practice. For instance, while condemning abortion, he did not object to politicians who supported it receiving communion, as seen with Joe Biden. While maintaining that marriage is between a man and a woman, he allowed priests to bless same-sex couples, although this couldn't be done during the liturgy. Instead, a brief prayer is said asking God to grant them peace, health, mutual support, and spiritual strength to follow God's will. The main criticism from conservatives was that, while not formally rejecting traditional principles, Francis was "diluting" them by favoring liberal pastoral practices.

In the film "Conclave," the main character, a liberal cardinal played by Ralph Fiennes, speaks about the importance of doubt for believers. This reflects Francis' approach, which didn't abolish religious orthodoxy but encouraged doubt even in seemingly unshakeable principles. And if doubts arise, those principles are no longer as unshakeable.

If one adds up the currently published lists of possible candidates for the papacy, or "papabile," they contain nearly a quarter of the conclave participants. So instead of predictions, it's more useful to consider the possible strategies of the cardinals. In the conclaves of 1978 (the second was necessary as Pope John Paul I died a month after his election) and the conclave of 2005, the main competition unfolded between liberals and conservatives who formed powerful coalitions. In 1978, the liberals won, while in 2005, the conservatives prevailed. However, the characteristics of these coalitions were different. In 1978, Cardinal Giuseppe Siri was the leader of the conservatives, with whom plans for a fundamental revision of the decisions of the Second Vatican Council were associated. In 2005, as previously mentioned, Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, although a conservative, won, but as a supporter of the course proclaimed at the council.

The situation in 2013 was more complex, as Benedict XVI resigned without naming a possible successor, leaving the conservatives disoriented and unable to put forward a consolidated candidate. In contrast, the liberals agreed to support Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio, who at that time was acceptable to some moderate conservatives and, most importantly, to cardinals not representing Europe. Currently, there are indications that the conclave will develop along the lines of 1978 or 2005, as both conservatives and liberals have clearly prepared for it in advance.

Now, the conservatives' gaze is turned towards Africa, where both the clergy and the faithful are less liberal than in Europe. The blessing of same-sex marriages was received so negatively there that the Vatican decided not to introduce them. The scenario of an American conservative cardinal, as in the series "The Young Pope," is less likely, as it would be difficult for African, Asian, and Latin American cardinals to support a representative of the United States. However, a "black pope" could receive their support. If in 2013 the liberals agreed to promote a "non-Western" candidate, now the conservatives might do the same. In the film "Conclave," a scenario is modeled in which an African conservative cardinal almost won the election.

If the most steadfast traditionalists' hero, Guinean Cardinal Robert Sarah, may deter a significant number of cardinals with his rigid conservatism, Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu of the Democratic Republic of Congo has more potential to attract the sympathies of "non-Western" cardinals. However, he too faces challenges. Firstly, his active involvement in political activities in his home country is not an asset for a future pope. Secondly, at 65, his chances of becoming pontiff decrease for other conclave participants.

As for liberals, they could back one of the well-connected Italian cardinals, such as Vatican Secretary of State Pietro Parolin or Archbishop of Bologna Matteo Maria Zuppi. Both were close to the late pope, which is not necessarily an advantage. Of course, there are other possibilities for both conservatives and liberals. If the two "parties" balance each other, a compromise candidate may emerge who satisfies most cardinals.

Editor's Note:

The editorial opinion may not align with the author's viewpoint.

Enrichment Data:

Key Issues and Challenges

Clergy Celibacy: Debates surround the possibility of optional celibacy as a means to address priest shortages, while traditionalists view it as non-negotiable, tied to spiritual identity.
Abortion: While the Church's opposition to abortion remains entrenched, Francis' focus on pastoral care over condemnation has softened the tone of engagement.
Divorce and Annulments: Debates persist about accommodations for divorced Catholics receiving Communion, as Francis streamlined annulment procedures but official restrictions remain.
Women's Ordination: Female deacons are a potential flashpoint, with Francis studying but not acting upon the possibility, leaving room for his successor to revisit the issue.
Same-Sex Relationships: The Church may face pressure to revisit teachings on homosexual acts under a new pope, particularly from Western churches.

Future Directions:

Traditionalists aim for a return to doctrinal rigidity, particularly on marriage and sexuality.
Reformists seek to decentralize authority and adopt pastoral flexibility akin to Francis' "field hospital" ethos.
Geopolitical factors, such as the Vatican-China deal and growth in Africa, may constrain progressive reforms.

The Church's trajectory hinges on the next conclave, as divisions surfaced during the synodal process initiated by Francis, with critics fearing Anglican-style fragmentation over doctrinal "modernization." Meanwhile, unresolved crises—clerical sexual abuse, financial scandals, and declining Western adherence—ensure reform debates will remain central to the Church's identity in coming decades.

The upcoming conclave could see a contest between conservatives and liberals, akin to the ones in 1978 and 2005, as both factions have been strategizing their future moves.
Conservatives are eyeing African contenders like Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, due to their perceived traditional values, although concerns about his political involvement and age persist.
Meanwhile, the liberal bloc might back Italian candidates such as Cardinal Pietro Parolin or Archbishop Matteo Maria Zuppi, both with ties to the late pope, though success is not guaranteed.
A compromise candidate who appeases most cardinals may emerge, as the Church grapples with key issues like clergy celibacy, abortion, divorce, women's ordination, and same-sex relationships, and seeks to address ongoing crises such as clerical sexual abuse and financial scandals.