Aiming for Victory: Will Özdemir Secure Victory in State Elections? - Possible victor in the legislative election: Analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of Can Özdemir
Baden-Württemberg State Election 2026: An Analysis of Cem Özdemir's Prospects
The incumbent Green Party is currently struggling in the polls for the upcoming state election, with the ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU) holding a sizeable lead. According to a recent poll, if the election were held today, the Greens would finish approximately ten percentage points behind the CDU, handing over the office of Minister President to CDU leader Manuel Hagel.
This Saturday, the Greens in Baden-Württemberg will officially nominate Cem Özdemir as their top candidate. However, communication scientist Frank Brettschneider from the University of Hohenheim suggests that the prospects are slender for Özdemir at the moment.
What Works in Favor of Özdemir
Recognition and Popularity
In elections, candidates have become increasingly visible. Ten years ago, the Greens campaigned with the slogan "Vote Green for Kretschmann" and are now hoping for a candidate bonus once again. Apart from the incumbent Minister President, Winfried Kretschmann, and Cem Özdemir, no politician in the southwest is as widely recognized. Michael Wehner, a political scientist from Freiburg, notes that state elections have become increasingly personality-driven. In this regard, Özdemir is ahead of the curve.
A Clear Majority Wants Özdemir as Minister President
According to a current survey by Infratest dimap on behalf of SWR and the "Stuttgarter Zeitung," 39 percent of respondents want Özdemir to be the Minister President, compared to just 18 percent who support his CDU competitor, Manuel Hagel.
Rhetorical Ability and Centrist Positioning
Özdemir has demonstrated his ability to connect with people through his words during the farmers' protests. He managed to engage angry farmers in discussions, at least making them listen to him or even understand him. Communication scientist Brettschneider acknowledges Özdemir's strong rhetorical skills and ability to pick up arguments from the opposition and present his own in response. However, these skills are more favored in urban voter segments.
Özdemir's Conservative Green Positioning is Key in Baden-Württemberg
As a realist within the party, Özdemir's emphasis on values such as homeland attachment, security, and pioneering spirit is crucial to his chances in Baden-Württemberg. Brettschneider argues that this positioning as a conservative Green is essential for Özdemir in the southwest, as it appeals to the conservative leaning population in the region.
Possible Wild Cards
A potential wild card in the election could be Friedrich Merz, leader of the federal government. If the federal government fails to deliver satisfactory policies, this could boost Özdemir's standing in the state election. On the other hand, a significant dissatisfaction with the federal government could benefit the Alternative for Germany (AfD) instead of the Greens.
What Works Against Özdemir
The Polls Paint a Grim Picture
While polls are only a reflection of the current mood of voters, they still paint a challenging environment for Özdemir and the Greens. The Green Party has been stuck at around 20 percent support for several months, while the CDU maintains a strong position at the top. It is worth noting that before the 2016 election, the CDU was sometimes polling above 40 percent but ultimately lost to the Greens.
Little Benefit from Party Support
So far, Özdemir's candidacy has not seemed to significantly benefit from the poll numbers of his party. After his candidacy was announced, the party experienced a four-percentage-point increase, but has since lost two percentage points in the latest poll. Moreover, 42 percent of respondents in the Infratest-dimap poll prefer a CDU-led state government, compared to 29 percent who support a government led by the Greens.
The Issues and the Impact of Campaigning
The current political issues of migration, economy, and jobs are not favorable for the Greens. To date, a majority of voters have expressed little trust in the party's ability to provide convincing solutions in these areas. Communication scientist Brettschneider notes that the current issue landscape is running completely against the Greens, as it seeks solutions primarily in economic and employment terms. This could change should the topic of climate change regain prominence, or an extremely hot summer leads to renewed focus on the environment.
Potential Challenges for Özdemir
Public Perception and familiarity can be both a blessing and a curse. From Brettschneider's perspective, Özdemir is viewed as a Berlin political celebrity who is associated with his role in the federal government. Özdemir has not yet established a political identity in state politics, which could potentially disadvantage him in a state election campaign.
Additionally, Özdemir's tenure as Federal Minister of Agriculture may have left him with few friends among farmers, as the abolition of agricultural diesel subsidies remains a contentious issue. However, Brettschneider believes that Özdemir also earned respect through his willingness to engage with the farmers during the protests.
In summary, while the polls show the CDU in a strong position, Cem Özdemir's chances in the election remain open. Factors that could work in his favor include the legacy and continued popularity of Winfried Kretschmann's Green-led government, potential CDU missteps, and the influence of local issues and voter turnout. The ultimate outcome of the election depends on Özdemir's ability to mobilize the Greens' base around a promising platform that addresses the concerns of Baden-Württemberg citizens.
- The community policy of attracting more voters to the Green Party in Baden-Württemberg's election 2026 is heavily reliant on the popularity of Cem Özdemir as a candidate.
- Employment policy, such as improving job security and economic growth, may play a key role in the Greens' election strategy.
- Policy-and-legislation concerning immigration and war-and-conflicts may impact voter decisions, as they are issues of general-news interest.
- Car-accidents, crime-and-justice, and fires could be potential areas where the Green Party and Cem Özdemir can show their commitment to public safety.
- Sports-related issues, including football, basketball, baseball, hockey, golf, racing, tennis and mixed-martial-arts, could potentially be used to engage voters with Cem Özdemir's centrist stance.
- The Champions League, European leagues, and NBA are specific sports events that could be highlighted in the Green Party's campaign.
- Popular sports-betting may help connect Cem Özdemir with voters who have an interest in this area.
- Migration and its impact on the state's economy, employment policy, and communities may be a debated topic during the election.
- Policy concerning war-and-conflicts and their implications for employment, economy, and social welfare could be addressed by candidates.
- Car-accidents, crime, and justice could emerge as campaign issues, requiring the candidates' positions on law enforcement, victim support, and prevention measures to be articulated.
- Fires and their management, along with climate change policies, may be discussed in the context of environmental protection, prevention, and response strategies.
- Cem Özdemir's sports affiliations and interests may help him connect with voters who follow sports like football, basketball, baseball, hockey, golf, tennis, racing, and mixed-martial-arts.
- The tackling of issues such as migration, climate change, and employment policy by the elected Minister President will be watched closely by many voters.
- The policy on sports, including its funding, promotion, and regulation, could come under scrutiny during the election.
- The potential impact of politics, sports, migration, war-and-conflicts, and crime-and-justice on employment policy, economy, and community well-being may be analyzed post-election.
- If Cem Özdemir becomes Minister President, his policies on migration, employment, and sports may be compared to those of his predecessors and other political leaders across Europe.
