Analysis of Prospects and Challenges: Will Can Özdemir Triumph in the Regional Vote? - Possible outcomes: Will Can Özdemir prevail in the parliamentary vote? Considering factors for and against his success.
In the impending state election of 2026, Cem Özdemir, the Greens' nominated candidate for the post of Minister-President in Baden-Württemberg, faces a tough challenge. According to recent polls, the ruling CDU lead the Greens by around ten percentage points, which would necessitate a transfer of power to the CDU's leader, Manuel Hagel, if the election were held today.
On Saturday, the Greens are set to officially nominate Özdemir as their top candidate. However, with current polls unfavorable for the party, some question whether this decision amounts to a high-risk gambit, or if Özdemir can turn the election in the Greens’ favor.
Frank Brettschneider, a communications scientist from the University of Hohenheim, posits that Özdemir should not ignore the polls, but adds that the chances of success are currently quite low.
For Özdemir, there are several factors working in his favor:
- Recognition: Özdemir's name is well-known among voters in the southwest. As the second most recognizable politician in the region, behind only the incumbent Minister President Winfried Kretschmann, he benefits from the candidate bonus. If citizens could directly elect the head of government, the Greens would have a clear lead, with 39 percent of respondents preferring Özdemir, compared to only 18 percent for Hagel.
- Rhetorical Skills: Özdemir has proven his ability to engage and argue convincingly, particularly during the farmers' protests. His skills are particularly valued among urban voters.
- Centrist Course: Özdemir's focus on values such as homeland attachment, security, and entrepreneurial spirit could resonate with voters in Baden-Württemberg, enhancing his chances.
The CDU's rival, however, has some advantages of its own. The current political climate might not favor the Greens, with topics like migration, the economy, and jobs overshadowing environmental and climate protection concerns. Furthermore, the Greens' perceived lack of promising solutions in these crucial areas could impact their chances.
Moreover, the polls paint a challenging picture for the Greens. Despite the CDU's leader sometimes polling well over 40 percent in the past, the Greens won the election in 2016. Yet, Özdemir as a candidate does not appear to have significantly benefited from his party's poll numbers.
Political scientist Michael Wehner advises against jumping to conclusions too early, emphasizing that the number of late deciders has increased significantly in recent decades. The heated campaign phase will not begin until January 2026.
In the end, the outcome of the election will depend on a multitude of factors, including Özdemir's ability to effectively address these challenges and capitalize on his strengths.
- Cem Özdemir, the Greens' nominee for Minister-President, could potentially exploit his well-known name and strong rhetorical skills in the southwest, possibly turning the election in the Greens’ favor.
- Despite the current unfavorable polls, Özdemir's focus on values like homeland attachment, security, and entrepreneurial spirit could appeal to voters in Baden-Württemberg, increasing the Greens' chances.
- On the other hand, the political climate might not favor the Greens, as topics like migration, economy, and jobs overshadow environmental and climate protection concerns.
- The CDU, the ruling party, might have a clear advantage due to the perceived lack of promising solutions in these crucial areas for the Greens.
- Political analysts have warned against premature conclusions, highlighting the increasing number of late deciders in recent elections and the fierce campaign phase that will commence in January 2026.
