A Glimpse into the Middle East Conflict and Russia's Role
Possibility of Aid from Moscow to Iran Considered
What role could Russia play in supporting its partner, Iran, in its ongoing conflict with Israel? This question has been the subject of intense debate in Russia for days. Vladimir Putin, who maintains contact with the leaders of both countries and has positioned himself as a mediator, finds himself in a tricky situation.
Iran might require military aid, potentially including Russia's air defense systems. However, Putin faces challenges due to his own war in Ukraine and the need to maintain his relationship with Trump, whose administration is keen on improving ties with Moscow.
While Russia might not view the war in the Middle East as entirely disadvantageous - the oil price hike brings more funds to Putin's war chest, and any distraction from Russia's attacks against Ukraine is welcomed - direct military involvement seems unlikely.After all, Russia's priority remains the war in Ukraine where it has a significant military presence.
Russia's Perception of the Middle East Conflict
Moscow is aware of Tehran's disappointment over the lack of concrete support thus far. According to Fyodor Lukyanov, a prominent expert on Russia's foreign policy, Moscow is also surprised by Israel's "brutality" and Iran's poor preparedness for the attacks[6]. While Russia appreciates Iran's support in the Ukraine war and uses Iranian drone designs for its attacks, it's unlikely that Russia would deploy its military in Iran[6].
Shifting Power Dynamics in the Middle East
For years, Russia and Iran, along with the militias supported by Tehran, were the key allies of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. However, since his fall, the power dynamics in the region have shifted, favoring Israel[1].
Despite officially signing a widely noted strategic partnership this year[2], the 20-year treaty between Russia and Iran doesn't contain a mutual defense clause - unlike the agreement between Russia and North Korea[4]. Experts believe that this treaty could open possibilities for humanitarian, financial, and economic aid[5].
Russia, Nuclear Dangers, and Diplomatic Warnings
Russia has always supported the civilian use of nuclear energy in Iran and has acted as a mediator in conflict over Iran's nuclear program. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasizes the need for a peaceful solution almost daily. However, some Russian commentators openly question whether Iran should not possess nuclear weapons in light of the Israeli threat. Officially, Russia rejects possible Iranian nuclear weapons[7].
The Russian Foreign Ministry has strongly condemned Israel, accusing it of "atrocities" against Iranian nuclear facilities and military, warning of a nuclear danger in the Middle East. The ministry also blames Western states for supporting Israel's destructive and dangerous policies with "anti-Iran hysteria."
Potential Betrayal?
Despite some sharp condemnations of Israel being well-received in Iran, concerns may arise that Putin could hold back support for Iran in the event of a deal with Trump, potentially sacrificing Iran to secure U.S. support for Ukraine. Some Russian military bloggers have already speculated that every missile Trump sends to Israel will miss Ukraine[8].
While Iran and Russia aim to stand together when faced with conflicts, experts point out that the relationship is influenced by the dynamics between Moscow and Washington[8]. Tehran closely monitors the relationship between Trump and Putin, as past trends suggest that hostility towards the West strengthens the Iran-Russia alliance, while greater sympathies between Moscow and Washington weaken it[4].
- Russia, given its current strategic partnership with Iran, might provide non-military aid to Iran, such as humanitarian, financial, or economic assistance, while maintaining its priority on the war in Ukraine and avoiding direct military involvement in the Middle East conflict.
- Despite the 20-year treaty between Russia and Iran, the lack of a mutual defense clause raises questions about Russia's commitment to defend Iran in case of a conflict, especially when considered alongside the influence of Russia-US dynamics on the Iran-Russia relationship.
