Politics in Bolivia undergo restructuring
Bolivia's 2025 Election Marks a Seismic Shift Away from MAS Dominance
The 2025 election in Bolivia signifies a significant change in the country's political landscape as the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS) party, which ruled for nearly 20 years, faces a challenging time. The election comes amid Bolivia's worst crisis in four decades, with severe fuel shortages, rampant inflation, a critical dollar scarcity, and plummeting natural gas revenues causing widespread public discontent.
The MAS party, once relying on its resource-driven social programs for support, has seen its credibility erode due to the economic crisis and internal disputes within the party. The leadership split between President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales, whose candidacy was barred, has fragmented MAS’s traditional social movement support base.
Violent confrontations primarily around Morales’s core stronghold of Cochabamba and a loss of support from major unions and mining cooperatives, many of which now back other candidates or parties, indicate a broader realignment among labor and social movements.
The election campaign has shown the challenges in coordinating struggles and putting issues on the political agenda for Bolivia's civil society. In the upcoming transition phase, it's crucial for the political system and society to be reshaped, not just resisted.
The new government, expected to be formed through coalitions due to the absence of any party having a majority, will have to make decisions to combat high inflation, fuel shortages, and currency scarcity. These decisions could lead to conflicts, given the polarized nature of the country's political landscape.
The left, including the MAS, and social organizations like the CSUTCB and "Bartolinas" will continue to exist and should engage in self-criticism and debate. The rural workers' union CSUTCB and the indigenous women's organization "Bartolinas" have a long tradition and form a solid base of the national popular movement. However, the indigenous rural population, a traditional supporter of the MAS, may not feel represented in this election.
Evo Morales, despite being barred from running, has called on his supporters to cast invalid votes. Governability depends not only on a parliamentary majority but also on the support of the people on the streets.
The future role of the MAS in Bolivia's politics will be as a continuing presence, but not as a ruling party. The party system will likely consist of five or six parties, none of which will have their own majority.
Young voters make up a significant portion of the electorate (35% to 45%), and a majority of first-time voters are skeptical of democracy and could accept an authoritarian government. Education, environmental protection, and gender equality were practically ignored in the election campaign due to the weakened and polarized state of Bolivia's civil society.
In the short term, the new government will primarily focus on addressing the economic crisis. The future direction of Bolivia's foreign policy, whether continuing alignment with China and Russia under MAS-affiliated factions or pivoting toward multilateral lenders, the U.S., and EU under new leadership, will likely be determined by the outcome of the runoff election scheduled for October 19, 2025.
As Bolivia navigates this new political landscape, social organizations must renew themselves to adapt to the changing dynamics. The future success of the country will depend on its ability to find common ground and work together to address the challenges ahead.
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