Political Tension mounts among Venezuelan Opposition in anticipation of upcoming US Elections
Venezuelan opposition forces face a turbulent road ahead as they navigate the uncertain path toward Nicolás Maduro's inauguration on January 10, 2025. This uncertainty stems from the chaotic state of the United States, which is grappling with internal and geopolitical issues, causing it to delegate interventionist action in Venezuela to Spain.
The opposition itself is plagued with deep contradictions, a situation intensified following the July 28 presidential elections. Since Hugo Chávez took office in 1999, the right-wing opposition's strategies and actions have often been controlled by Washington, a pattern that can be seen throughout Latin America, the Caribbean, and beyond.
US meddling in Venezuelan affairs has been relentless, although it has taken different forms under various White House tenants. Regardless of party, both Democrats and Republicans have shown a keen interest in exerting influence.
The Trump administration is known for its aggressive stance towards Venezuela, which included a blockade and coercive measures. In 2019, the US supported an "interim government" aimed at seizing control of Venezuelan assets and bank accounts worldwide. This government was led by the most extreme faction of the opposition but received backing from moderate parties and leaders as well.
A strategy of maximum pressure and abandonment of electoral processes became dominant, leading to devastating economic consequences and further destabilizing incidents such as assassination attempts, botched invasions, widespread blackouts, and failed coup attempts.
Opposition parties and leaders who did not align with this insurrectionary strategy faced intense smear campaigns, being labeled "collaborators" of a "dictatorship" and derogatorily referred to as "scorpions". Some were subjected to personal sanctions, including visa cancellations, frozen bank accounts, and asset seizures. Others, fearing similar repercussions, turned to supporting extremist agendas.
Under the Biden administration, a note of ambiguity has characterized US foreign policy. Sanctions have been maintained and even intensified, while the plunder of assets continues alongside insurrectionary efforts, albeit with less overt fervor than during Trump's presidency.
Radical factions are perplexed by the shift in US policy, expressing frustration over inconsistent messages from Francisco Palmieri, the official in charge of diplomatic relations with Venezuela who operates from Bogotá.
With the US mired in internal turmoil and grappling with conflicts in distant regions, it appears to have other priorities, leaving Venezuela's extremist factions feeling somewhat forsaken.
The radical wing of the opposition, who once pinned their hopes on a Trump victory, are now adapting to a changing landscape. US domestic politics is in a state of upheaval, causing a shift in outlook. Trump's stance on Venezuela may have softened, and implications of this change remain to be seen.
The critical date of January 10 is fast approaching, when Nicolás Maduro is expected to be sworn in before Venezuela’s National Assembly (AN). The new US government's stance on this matter will undoubtedly be influenced by developments in the war in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East.
The situation reflects a profound division within the opposition spectrum. On one side are the radicals who advocate for conflict and violence as the new year begins, maintaining that right-wing candidate Edmundo González Urrutia won the presidential election on July 28. On the other side are the opposition parties and leaders who acknowledge Maduro's victory and aim to focus on upcoming elections in 2025.
This structural divide has caused rifts within important opposition parties, including Acción Democrática and Primero Justicia. Internal cracks are further exacerbated by the rise of ultra-right-wing leader María Corina Machado, who seeks to assert her dominance over the anti-Chavista movement. A notable challenge to her authority comes from influential party leaders such as Manuel Rosales, Governor of Zulia and head of the social-democratic party Un Nuevo Tiempo (UNT).
As long as the US remains uncertain about its next government, the core of the Venezuelan opposition will remain mired in suspense, hesitation, and mutual surprises. This is the price to pay for a strategic and tactical dependence on imperial power.
Clodovaldo Hernández is a journalist and political analyst with experience in higher education. He won the National Journalism Prize (Opinion category) in 2002. He is the author of the books Reinventario (poetry and short stories), De genios y de figuras (journalistic profiles), and Esa larga, infinita distancia (novel).
The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Venezuelanalysis editorial staff.
Translated by Venezuelanalysis.
- Venezuelan Analysis reports that the opposition's path toward Nicolás Maduro's 2025 inauguration is filled with challenges, as they navigate political contradictions exacerbated post-July 2022 elections.
- The opposition's strategies and actions, dating back to Hugo Chávez's tenure in 1999, have often been influenced by US politics, a trend observable throughout Latin America, the Caribbean, and beyond.
- Navigating war-and-conflicts-laden political landscapes, the US has historically shown a keen interest in promoting its agendas in Venezuela, demonstrated through various interventions under Democratic and Republican administrations.
- In 2025, as the opposition faces internal turmoil and the looming inauguration of President Maduro, their strategic alignment with influential powers like the US could prove crucial in shaping the course of general news events in Venezuela.
