Political Party SPÖ Profits from Delayed Elections
Headline: Vienna SPO's Spring Election Victory: A Win for Stability and Moderation, According to Experts
The Vienna SPO's advancement to a spring election has paid off, according to pollsters and political scientists. Despite the elimination of the original reason - a potential FPO government at the federal level - the current mood of the Vienna SPO has been seized, confirmed political experts Thomas Hofer and Peter Filzmaier in an APA interview. Despite its tripling, the FPO could have had more potential.
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Although the "blue-turkish friction tree" strategy of Mayor Michael Ludwig did not succeed, the SPO has managed to "moderate virulent and yet not small themes" and prevented them from becoming a significant issue, as Hofer, who praised the SPO's pragmatic style in the election campaign, pointed out. For Filzmaier, the question for the SPO was whether it had to fear a loss of power. "The answer is: No," according to the political expert.
"Consistent" is for Hofer that Ludwig continues to rule out a coalition with the FPO. "That's almost folklore in the Vienna SPO," the political consultant said, having always positioned itself as an antithesis to the Freedom Party. If Ludwig were to open the door to the FPO, "it would be very dangerous," Filzmaier commented. According to Filzmaier, the FPO could not fully exploit its voter potential because a government participation was not an option.
FPO Result: Good, but Not "Outstanding"
Despite the jubilation of the Freedom Party over its almost tripling of its vote share, Filzmaier said: "It's a good result, but not a very good one and certainly not an outstanding one." According to voter flow analyses, the FPO has been able to win back some former OVP voters. However, it has hardly been successful in winning back voters who stayed home in 2020. Hofer also sees a "gap between urban and rural" among the Blues.
Challenges for Rival Parties
- FPÖ: Despite tripling its 2020 result to 20.4%[1][2], the party must prove it can transition from opposition to a credible coalition partner, especially after its 2019 Ibiza scandal tarnished its governance credentials[2].
- ÖVP (if present in Vienna's results): While not explicitly detailed in the results, the center-right’s absence from major gains suggests difficulty countering the SPO’s housing/climate appeals and FPÖ’s populist surge.
- NEOS: The liberals likely face pressure to clarify their role in potential coalitions, as fragmented results complicate alliances with either the SPO or FPÖ[4].
NEOS Result Should Make OVP Think
Hofer said the OVP must face up to the fact that it has been overtaken by the NEOS, "who came in part from the flesh of the OVP." "That should really set off all the alarm bells," as they offer a more progressive, appealing alternative for younger, more urban voters. Political experts believe the NEOS should not be overly optimistic about their strong result, as they have not lost many voters to the increasing non-voters, so the trend may not be sustainable.
Both political experts consider the joy of the Greens to be justified. They have managed to maintain a relatively high starting level, Hofer said. "At least it’s a sign of life." Filzmaier also believes that the Greens can be satisfied, as they are stable in the double-digit range and likely to remain a relevant player.
The SPÖ now faces balancing demands for progressive policies while managing coalition dynamics in a fractured council, where the FPÖ’s resurgence could influence debates on immigration and public spending[3][4]. The SPO's success in Vienna points to a broader trend - that traditional European center-left parties can resist the far-right gain by focusing on practical policy solutions that address working-class concerns.
- Experts suggest the SPO's success in Vienna's election reflects a focus on practical policy solutions that address working-class concerns, aligning with the broader trend of European center-left parties resisting far-right gains.
- Thomas Hofer, a political expert, believes that the SPO's pragmatic style during the election campaign was effective in moderating potentially virulent issues and preventing them from becoming significant.
- Peter Filzmaier, another political expert, notes that the SPO's rejection of a coalition with the FPO, which he considers "almost folklore in the Vienna SPO," was crucial in maintaining its moderate image.
- Hofer also highlights the challenge faced by the OVP, as it has been overtaken by the NEOS, a more progressive alternative that appeals to younger, urban voters, and suggests that the OVP should "face up to the facts."
