Political Landscape Shift: Assessing the Current Public Opinion

Midterm Madness: Shifting Sands of Philippine Politics

Get ready, folks! The upcoming midterm elections, following the unexpected split of the Marcos-Duterte unity team, promise an intriguing peek into the evolving Philippine political landscape. With former President Digong Duterte currently held at The Hague, awaiting trial for his alleged crimes against humanity, this upcoming vote could reshape political affiliations significantly.

The breakup between the Marcos and Duterte camps, two of the country's most divisive figures in recent political history, may have a noticeable impact on voters' behavior. As political forces realign, some voters may switch loyalties or consider third-party options, signaling a move towards more engaging and meaningful political ties.

Insight: The dissolution of the Marcos-Duterte unity team, crucial to Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s 2022 presidential win, is expected to serve as a barometer of his first term in office. Midterm elections usually gauge public opinion regarding the ruling party[1][2].

The electoral landscape is set to evolve, with traditional strongholds being contested and new alliances being formed. This election could resemble a "shadow poll" between President BBM and his cousin Speaker Martin Romualdez, on one side, and the Dutertes, particularly their political allies, on the other. Alternatively, the results could indicate a desire for change among the electorate, as voters seek alternatives to the traditional political elite.

Insight: The 2025 elections are framed as a critical turning point, with Marcos Jr.’s coalition aiming to secure legislative dominance to advance its agenda[4][2]. Opposition groups and reform advocates, however, are highlighting electoral transparency and anti-corruption measures amid heightened political polarization[5][4].

As we gear up for the May 12, 2025 elections, an unexpected move by the administration to sell subsidized rice in the Visayan region has emerged. With just two weeks to go until voting day, the administration decided to offer rice at Php 20 per kilo, a subsidy that will cost around P3.5 to P4.5 billion. Critics see this as an attention-grabbing move aimed at swaying Visayan voters, who have shown strong support for the arrest of former President Duterte by the International Criminal Court[1].

Insight: Gen Z voters, backed by AI-driven campaigns, are poised to play a pivotal role in the elections amid concerns about disinformation and the shaping of electoral outcomes[3].

In a surprising twist, just weeks before the elections, Cebu Governor Gwen Garcia was ordered suspended by the Ombudsman for issuing a special permit without required environmental compliance certificates. Despite the timing, politically motivated motives are unlikely, given her close ties to the administration[1]. Garcia plans to appeal the suspension, arguing that the decision was made in collaboration with affected local government units and regulatory agencies[1].

Insight: The Philippines' political landscape is characterized by fluid alliances and rapidly shifting voter sentiment towards the party or individual perceived as the political underdog[1]. The aftermath of the midterm elections will likely set the stage for future polls.

The midterm elections, approaching amid the split of the Marcos-Duterte unity team, serve as an undeniably significant event, offering a glimpse into the ideological leanings of the Filipino electorate.
As the politics of war-and-conflicts and policy-and-legislation diverge, this election will undeniably shape the environmental policies to come, with voters' choices potentially swinging the balance towards greater focus on ecological concerns.
The ongoing trial of former President Duterte at The Hague adds an unprecedented dimension to the general news and crime-and-justice narratives, as the public awaits the verdict and its potential consequences for his political allies.
With the elections being a critical test for the Marcos-led government, the possibility of a shift in voter sentiment towards alternatives in crime-and-justice matters could signal a desire for a morejust society.
In contrast, the Duterte faction may capitalize on this political divide, further intensifying the ongoing polarization within the political landscape.
Meanwhile, the Cebu local election is an unexpected factor in the electoral mix, as the suspension of popular Governor Gwen Garcia places her future in politics and the administration at stake amid allegations of non-compliance with environmental regulations.
The emergence of Gen Z voters, using AI-driven campaigns to influence the political landscape, underscores the impact of new technology on future elections and the reshaping of Philippine politics in the digital era.
As the elections draw nearer and the suspense builds, the outcome of the midterm polls will undeniably define the Philippines' political climate for the foreseeable future.