Political Insight: Shrewd Strategies for Successful Engagement

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Here's a lowdown on the tense political scene unfolding in Thailand, where a former finance minister has thrown some hard-hitting warnings at the current administration.

The ex-finance minister, Korn Chatikavanij, who served under Abhisit Vejjajiva, dropped a stark warning to an aspiring finance minister in a recent Facebook post. He issued this advice in light of comments made by list MP and People's Party (PP) deputy leader, Sirikanya Tansakun.

Ms. Sirikanya suggested that the main opposition party was shortlisting members to discuss the national expenditure bill for the next fiscal year in October. She also hinted at her support for the Finance Ministry if it chooses to expand the country's borrowing capacity to offset potential impacts of US tariffs.

However, Ms. Sirikanya's words didn't exactly sit well with Mr. Korn. He questioned the haste in accepting loan initiatives, expressing concerns about the stability of the country's finances.

Amidst the economic storm sweeping the nation and the world, Mr. Korn urged the government to stand united in seeking solutions, rather than being partisan. He, however, pointed out that he was closely watching to see if government policies showed any positive results.

Mr. Korn's attention has been drawn to the government considering a loan bill, which they aim to enact in time for the next fiscal year's expenditure. Mr. Korn expressed his confusion about the rationale behind burdening the country with a loan at a time when the current fiscal year budget is barely halfway through and the next fiscal year budget expenditure bill is still in its initial stages.

The government's overestimation of economic growth has resulted in a hefty deficit for the current fiscal year. To make up for this shortfall, the government has been forced to borrow, reaching almost the maximum limit on public debt.

To make matters worse, the Pheu Thai Party's flagship campaign policy – the digital handout scheme, implemented in phases in cash rather than digital currency, has been met with criticism. Critics argue that the policy, which is being revised as it goes, is based on a misguided concept and lacks the necessary fiscal discipline.

The initial plan to borrow 500 billion baht was also condemned for potentially violating the State Financial and Fiscal Discipline Act, as the country was not in a crisis as required by the law.

The digital wallet scheme requires citizens to register using the government's Tang Rat app. Despite the adjustments made to eligibility criteria, the programme's budget has been reduced from 500-600 billion baht to 450 billion baht. Recipients are required to spend their handouts in their registered residential districts.

The digital wallet policy has so far undergone two phases. The first involved distributing 10,000 baht to 14.5 million people who hold state welfare cards and disability cards. The second phase, for about 4 million elderly individuals aged 60 and above, started in January.

For the third phase, the Finance Ministry plans to distribute money through a digital payment platform system. Recipients must be Thai citizens aged 16 or above.

Mr. Korn speculated that the Trump tariff issue might serve as a front to justify the government's large appetite for additional funds. Instead of borrowing to balance the national coffers, Mr. Korn suggested the government should focus on cutting back on non-essential expenses.

"This trimming of expenses, as I recall, was a recommendation Khun Sirikanya made during scrutiny of the current fiscal year budget in parliament last year," said Mr. Korn.

Meanwhile, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's controversial hospital "imprisonment" faces renewed scrutiny, following the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions launching an inquiry. The inquiry aims to determine whether Thaksin's transfer from Bangkok Remand Prison to the Police General Hospital two years ago was justified or part of a scheme to avoid actual jail time.

In this heated political climate, Mr. Thaksin must remain vigilant, as the inquiry represents the closest legal call he's had to serving jail time. Sceptics remain, as Mr. Thaksin has shown no signs of frailty despite serious health issues. If his ailments are feigned, someone may have to bear the consequences to keep him out of jail. Unless Mr. Thaksin has prepared extensive documentation, he may struggle to extricate himself from this legal conundrum. As the situation unfolds, political analysts predict that strike deals between Mr. Thaksin and those in power could emerge, shaping the political landscape.

The Ex-finance minister, Korn Chatikavanij, has expressed his concerns about the stability of the country's finances in response to Sirikanya Tansakun's suggestion about shortlisting members to discuss the national expenditure bill.
Korn's warning to an aspiring finance minister came after Sirikanya hinted at her support for expanding the country's borrowing capacity, a move that Korn finds reassuringly slow in policy-and-legislation given the current economic climate.
Mr. Korn's speculation about the government's loan bill proposes focusing on cutting back on non-essential expenses instead of using loan initiatives to offset potential impacts of US tariffs, a view that attempts to address the fiscal discipline issue in politics.
As the heated political climate continues, Sirikanya Tansakun and former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's legal issues, such as the Supreme Court's inquiry regarding Thaksin's transfer from Bangkok Remand Prison, add fuel to the general-news fire, potentially leading to shiftings in policy-and-legislation and politics.