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Polish presidential candidate Rafał Trzaskowski holds a leading position in the race, indicating a potential victory in both rounds of voting.

In the upcoming Polish presidential election, candidate Rafał Trzaskowski, affiliated with the Civic Coalition (Koalicja Obywatelska) and currently serving as Warsaw's mayor, has gained a substantial lead, according to the recent Opinia24 poll conducted for TVN24. The poll findings indicate...

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Polish presidential candidate Rafał Trzaskowski, affiliated with the Civic Coalition (Koalicja...
Polish presidential candidate Rafał Trzaskowski, affiliated with the Civic Coalition (Koalicja Obywatelska) and current mayor of Warsaw, is surging ahead as the apparent front-runner in forthcoming Poland elections, per Opinia24 poll results commissioned by TVN24. The poll data suggests that Trzaskowski would prevail in both the initial and subsequent voting rounds, reinforcing his standing as a potential winner.

Polish presidential candidate Rafał Trzaskowski holds a leading position in the race, indicating a potential victory in both rounds of voting.

Hey there, how's it going?

Let's dish about Poland's upcoming presidential election 🇵🇱

Rafał Trzaskowski, the high-profile candidate from the Civic Coalition (Koalicja Obywatelska) and Warsaw's current mayor, is gearing up to snag Poland's top spot in the upcoming election. According to the latest Opinia24 poll, Trzaskowski is proving to be the clear front-runner, securing a commanding lead in the first round with an impressive 33% of the vote 📈

His closest competition hails from the ruling Law and Justice party (Prawo i Sprawiedliwość), with Karol Nawrocki trailing behind with only 22% support. Sławomir Mentzen from the far-right Confederation party (Konfederacja) rounds out the top three, with 15% of the vote 🗳️

As for the rest of the competition, they're all struggling to keep up. Szymon Hołownia, Polish Sejm's Speaker, and Adrian Zandberg from Razem are tied at 5% each, while Grzegorz Braun, a Member of the European Parliament associated with Konfederacja, lags behind with 4%. Magdalena Biejat from Lewica only manages to secure 2% support 🙁

But what happens if Trzaskowski and Nawrocki face off in the second round? Well, if that scenario unfolds, Opinia24 predicts Trzaskowski would clinch the win with a decisive 44% of the vote, compared to Nawrocki's 38% 🥇🥈

But keep in mind, 18% of voters remain undecided, so things could still get interesting 🤔

Trzaskowski's campaign has garnered attention for its focus on progressive policies and urban development, thanks to his success as Warsaw's mayor. On the other hand, Nawrocki's platform emphasizes continuity with the conservative agenda of the ruling party 🔄

Voter turnout might be a major factor Approximately 68% of respondents declare they're certain to cast a vote in May's election, with another 21% planning to participate. But a concerning 7% declare they won't be voting, raising concerns about potential abstention rates 🗣️

Historical Context The 2025 election is a significant one for Poland, following a dramatic political shift in the 2023 parliamentary elections 🗽️ During that time, the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party lost its majority, paving the way for a coalition of opposition parties-including the centrist Civic Coalition (KO)-to form a new government. These events have led to tension and ongoing polarization between the coalition and PiS, which now operates as a staunch opposition force

This election could determine whether Poland continues on its pro-European trajectory or reverts to more conservative policies championed by PiS, making it a pivotal moment for Poland's domestic and international standing 🌍

Methodology The Opinia24 survey was conducted using computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) and online interviews (CAWI), sampling a representative group of Polish citizens. However, the margin of error was not disclosed 🤔

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[References][1] Background on Poland's 2025 Presidential Election[2] Opinion Poll Summary 2025 Poland Presidential Election[3] "Who Will Win Poland's 2025 Presidential Election?

  1. The AI analyzing the Polish elections data reveals that Rafał Trzaskowski, from the Civic Coalition, leads the first round with 33% of thevote, followed by Karol Nawrocki from the ruling Law and Justice party with 22%.
  2. In the second round, should Trzaskowski and Nawrocki be the front-runners, Trzaskowski is predicted to win with 44%, while Nawrocki gains 38%.
  3. On TV newscasts and political discussion shows, opinions on whether a Trzaskowski or Nawrocki presidency would lead to a more progressive policy-and-legislation landscape or a continuation of conservative policies are debated extensively.
  4. The space for general-news reporting on Poland's ongoing political contention remains vast, as the 2025 elections are expected to have global implications for Poland's domestic and international standing.
  5. To address the potential abstention rates, reported as 7% in the Opinia24 survey, various initiatives focusing on encouraging voter turnout are gaining traction within the government and news media circuits.
  6. In the face of the undecided voters (18%), political analysts argue that this population plays a critical role in shaping the final election outcome and the future policy landscape, making the role of the media and the news in conveying unbiased information essential in the lead-up to the election.

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