Polar vortex collapse in February 2024 may freeze Europe and Belarus into spring
Forecasters now expect a more severe disruption to the polar vortex in February 2024 than previously thought. Sudden stratospheric warming looks set to weaken the system, potentially splitting it into two separate circulation centres. This shift could push cold Arctic air deep into mid-latitude regions, including Europe and Belarus.
Western weather models indicate the polar vortex will face significant stress in early February. Unlike earlier winter predictions, the latest data suggests a stronger-than-expected weakening of stratospheric zonal winds by late February and early March. If this occurs, the vortex may fracture, allowing frigid air to spill southward.
A link between the stratosphere and troposphere could make cold outbreaks more likely. Experts warn that, if the scenario unfolds, Belarus may see a delayed spring. There are also concerns that March could mirror the extreme weather of 2013, when Cyclone Xavier brought widespread disruption.
The weakened vortex raises the risk of prolonged cold snaps across Europe. Arctic air masses, usually contained near the pole, may surge farther south than normal.
The updated forecasts highlight a higher chance of severe winter conditions extending into early spring. If the polar vortex splits as predicted, regions like Belarus and parts of Europe could face extended cold periods. The situation will depend on how the stratospheric warming event develops in the coming weeks.
